Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias
Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias
复制标题
DOI：
10.1257/aer.20180310
复制
发表时间：
2019-08-01
影响因子：
10.7
通讯作者：
Kasy, Maximilian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andrews, Isaiah;Kasy, Maximilian
一些经验结果比其他结果更有可能被公布。选择性公布会导致估计有偏差和推论失真。我们提出了两种方法来确定发表的条件概率作为研究结果的函数，第一种基于系统的重复研究，第二种基于元研究。对于已知的条件发表概率，我们提出了偏差修正估计和置信集。我们将我们的方法应用于实验经济学和心理学最近的复制研究，以及关于最低工资影响的元研究。当复制和元研究数据可用时，我们从两者中发现类似的结果。
Some empirical results are more likely to be published than others. Selective publication leads to biased estimates and distorted inference. We propose two approaches for identifying the conditional probability of publication as a function of a study's results, the first based on systematic replication studies and the second on meta-studies. For known conditional publication probabilities, we propose bias-corrected estimators and confidence sets. We apply our methods to recent replication studies in experimental economics and psychology, and to a meta-study on the effect of the minimum wage. When replication and meta-study data are available, we find similar results from both.