Demography, national savings, and international capital flows
Demography, national savings, and international capital flows
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DOI：
10.2307/2527297
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发表时间：
1998-05-01
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Higgins, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Higgins, M
本文探讨了年龄分布、国民储蓄与经常项目收支之间的关系。研究结果表明，受抚养青年人和老年人比率的增加与储蓄率的降低有关，这对人口产生了重大影响。他们还指出了对储蓄和投资的不同影响，从而指出了人口在决定经常账户平衡方面的作用。在过去三十年中，一些国家的人口对经常账户余额的影响估计超过国内生产总值的6%，鉴于预期的人口趋势，未来几十年可能会大得多。
This paper addresses the relationship between age distribution, national savings and the current account balance. The results point to substantial demographic effects, with increases in both the youth and old-age dependency ratios associated with lower savings rates. They also point to differential effects on savings and investment, and thus to a role for demography in determining the current account balance. The estimated demographic effect on the current account balance exceeds six per cent of GDP over the last three decades for a number of countries and, given expected demographic trends, is likely to be substantially larger over the coming decades.