Does new product growth accelerate across technology generations?
Does new product growth accelerate across technology generations?
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新产品的增长是否会随着技术的发展而加速？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Renana Peres
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Stremersch;E. Muller;Renana Peres
关于新产品增长加速的学术文献呈现出一种悖论。一方面，扩散文献得出的结论是，新推出的产品比旧产品扩散得更快。另一方面，技术生成文献认为，增长率在几代人之间保持不变，至少以扩散参数衡量是如此。我们通过测试是否在控制时间流逝的同时，跨技术世代出现增长加速来解决这一明显的悖论。我们检查了12个产品市场中39代不同技术的加速速度。结果表明，代际加速发生在起飞前，而不是与扩散参数(即p和q)有关。我们发现，起飞加速主要是由技术陈旧(即，时间的推移)驱动的，而不是代际变化。因此，时间是加速早期生长的一个因素，但代际变化不会。当市场是企业对企业或企业对消费者时，以及当技术是基于过程或产品时，控制市场年份的影响时，这一结果也是成立的。
The academic literature on the growth acceleration of new products presents a paradox. On the one hand, the diffusion literature concludes that more recently introduced products show faster diffusion than older ones. On the other hand, technology generation literature argues that growth rate, at least as measured by diffusion parameters, remains constant across generations. We resolve this apparent paradox by testing whether growth acceleration occurs across technology generations while controlling for the passing of time. We check acceleration across 39 distinct technology generations in 12 product markets. The results show that intergeneration acceleration occurs in time to takeoff but not with respect to diffusion parameters (i.e., p and q). We show that takeoff acceleration is mostly driven by technology vintage (i.e., the passage of time) rather than generational shifts. Thus, time is a factor that accelerates early growth, but generational shifts do not. This result also holds when controlling for the effects of market vintage when the market is either business-to-business or business-to-consumer as well as when the technology is process- or product-based.