Human fatigue's effect on the risk of maritime groundings - A Bayesian Network modeling approach
Human fatigue's effect on the risk of maritime groundings - A Bayesian Network modeling approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ssci.2013.10.002
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发表时间：
2014-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Utne, Ingrid Bouwer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Akhtar, Muhammad Juned;Utne, Ingrid Bouwer
本文介绍了一种开发贝叶斯网络（BN）用于海上船舶事故风险建模的一般方法。提出了桥架管理人员疲劳程度与船舶搁浅风险的综合评价模型。在修改人因分析与分类系统（HFACS）的基础上，构建了人因分析与分类系统的定性部分。定量部分基于对93份事故调查报告中疲劳相关因素的相关性分析。BN模型表明，疲劳对接地概率有显著影响。劳累的操作员会使大型船舶在长途运输中搁浅的概率提高23%。与两种表制（6-6-12和12-12）相比，8-4-4-8表制似乎最不容易产生疲劳。然而，当考虑到受各种看守方案影响的人员配备水平时，两种看守系统是可取的，从而减少疲劳和接地。与高层管理人员有关的最严重的疲劳相关因素是船舶认证、人力资源和质量控制。(C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
The article introduces a general method for developing a Bayesian Network (BN) for modeling the risk of maritime ship accidents. A BN of human fatigue in the bridge management team and the risk of ship grounding is proposed. The qualitative part of the BN has been structured based on modifying the Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). The quantitative part is based upon correlation analysis of fatigue-related factors identified from 93 accident investigation reports. The BN model shows that fatigue has a significant effect on the probability of grounding. A fatigued operator raises the probability of grounding of a large ship in long transit with 23%. Compared to the two watch system (6-6 and 12-12), the 8-4-4-8 watch system seems to generate the least fatigue. However, when manning level, which is influenced by the various watch schemes, is taken into account, the two watch system is preferable, leading to less fatigue and fewer groundings. The strongest fatigue-related factors related to top management are vessel certifications, manning resources, and quality control. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.