Efficient joint-probability methods for hurricane surge frequency analysis
Efficient joint-probability methods for hurricane surge frequency analysis
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.oceaneng.2009.09.004
复制
发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Gabriel R. Toro;D. Resio;D. Divoky;A. Niedoroda;Chris Reed
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gabriel R. Toro;D. Resio;D. Divoky;A. Niedoroda;Chris Reed
联合概率法(JPM)被联邦机构用于确定卡特里娜飓风后的关键飓风激增频率。在标准的JPM实现中，有必要考虑非常多的风暴参数组合，每个这样的组合(或合成风暴)都需要模拟风、浪和浪涌。近年来，用于模拟波浪和涌浪现象的工具有了很大的改进，但这种改进和非常大的高分辨率网格的使用使得计算既耗时又昂贵。为了减轻计算负担，已经开发了两种独立的方法来减少所需的风暴潮模拟的数量。这两种所谓的JPM-OS(JPM最优采样)方法都试图通过对少量参数值的优化选择来精确覆盖整个风暴参数空间，从而将所需的风暴模拟次数降至最低。对密西西比州海岸进行的测试表明，这两种方法的精度与完整的JPM分析相当，计算工作量减少了一个数量级或更多。
The Joint-Probability Method (JPM) was adopted by federal agencies for critical post-Katrina determinations of hurricane surge frequencies. In standard JPM implementations, it is necessary to consider a very large number of combinations of storm parameters, and each such combination (or synthetic storm) requires the simulation of wind, waves, and surge. The tools used to model the wave and surge phenomena have improved greatly in recent years, but this improvement and the use of very large high-resolution grids have made the computations both time-consuming and expensive. In order to ease the computational burden, two independent approaches have been developed to reduce the number of storm surge simulations that are required. Both of these so-called JPM-OS (JPM-Optimal Sampling) methods seek to accurately cover the entire storm parameter space through optimum selection of a small number of parameter values so as to minimize the number of required storm simulations. Tests done for the Mississippi coast showed that the accuracy of the two methods is comparable to that of a full JPM analysis, with a reduction of an order of magnitude or more in the computational effort.