Probabilistic estimation of numbers and costs of future landslides in the San Francisco Bay region
Probabilistic estimation of numbers and costs of future landslides in the San Francisco Bay region
复制标题
旧金山湾地区未来山体滑坡数量和成本的概率估计
DOI：
10.1080/17499510802713123
复制
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Crovelli R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Crovelli R
We used historical records of damaging landslides triggered by rainstorms and a newly developed Probabilistic Landslide Assessment Cost Estimation System (PLACES) to estimate the numbers and direct costs of future landslides in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region. Historical records of damaging landslides in the region are incomplete. Therefore, our estimates of numbers and costs of future landslides are minimal estimates. The estimated mean annual number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region is about 65. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated mean annual number of damaging future landslides (about 18), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated mean numbers of damaging landslides (about 1 each). The estimated mean annual cost of future landslides in the entire region is about US $14.80 million (year 2000 $). The estimated mean annual cost is highest for San Mateo County ($3.24 million) and lowest for Solano County ($0.18 million). The annual per capita cost for the entire region will be about $2.10. Santa Cruz County will have the highest annual per capita cost at $8.45, whereas San Francisco County will have the lowest per capita cost at $0.31. Normalising costs by dividing by the percentage of land area with slopes equal to or greater than 17% indicates that San Francisco County will have the highest cost per square km ($7,101), whereas Santa Clara County will have the lowest cost per square km ($229). These results indicate that the San Francisco Bay region has one of the highest levels of landslide risk in the United States. Compared with landslide cost estimates from the rest of the world, the risk level in the Bay region seems high, but not exceptionally high.
登录
查看更多内容
1982 年 1 月 3 日至 5 日，加利福尼亚州旧金山湾地区发生山体滑坡、洪水和风暴造成的海洋影响
影响因子：
6.8
作者：
G. Wieczorek
通讯作者：
G. Wieczorek
华盛顿西部山体滑坡的社会经济影响
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Tara J. Burke;D. Sattler;T. Terich
通讯作者：
T. Terich
地图显示 1968-69 年冬季加利福尼亚州旧金山湾地区结构性破坏性山体滑坡的各县分布和损失
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1972
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
F. Taylor;E. E. Brabb
通讯作者：
E. E. Brabb
显示 1997-98 年冬季厄尔尼诺暴雨造成的破坏性山体滑坡位置的地图，加利福尼亚州旧金山湾地区
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1999
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
J. Godt
通讯作者：
J. Godt
加利福尼亚州旧金山湾地区滑坡和土流分布概要
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1997
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Wentworth;S. Graham;R. J. Pike;Gregg S. Beukelman;D. W. Ramsey;A. Barron
通讯作者：
A. Barron