Acclimatization across space and time in the effects of temperature on mortality: a time-series analysis.
Acclimatization across space and time in the effects of temperature on mortality: a time-series analysis.
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DOI：
10.1186/1476-069x-13-89
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发表时间：
2014-10-28
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影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Schwartz J
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文献类型：
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作者：
Lee M;Nordio F;Zanobetti A;Kinney P;Vautard R;Schwartz J
气候变化增加了非季节性温度的天数。虽然许多研究已经研究了温度和死亡率之间的关联，但很少有人研究暴露的时间，即使在相同的温度下，这种关联是否会因暴露月份而异。因此，我们在一项包括各种天气和年份的研究中调查了温度对死亡率影响的月度差异，我们还调查了地区间的异质性。我们分析了1973年至2006年美国148个城市的38，005，616例死亡病例。我们适合城市特定的泊松回归研究温度对死亡率的影响，分别为每年的每个月，使用惩罚样条。我们使用聚类分析对具有相似天气模式的城市进行分组，并使用元平滑将聚类内城市的结果进行组合。同一温度的影响在不同月份有很大的差异。春季和初夏的热效应较大，深秋的冷效应较大。此外，在高温不太常见的星系团中，热效应更大，冷效应则相反。给定温度对死亡率的影响在空间和时间上都是不同的，这取决于它在那个时间和地点的不寻常程度。这表明，随着气候变化，温度变化可能比平均温度变化对健康更重要。应更多地强调针对季节或月份的早期热/冷温度的警告，而不是只关注极端温度。本文的在线版本（doi：10.1186/1476- 069 X-13-89）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
Climate change has increased the days of unseasonal temperature. Although many studies have examined the association between temperature and mortality, few have examined the timing of exposure where whether this association varies depending on the exposure month even at the same temperature. Therefore, we investigated monthly differences in the effects of temperature on mortality in a study comprising a wide range of weather and years, and we also investigated heterogeneity among regions. We analyzed 38,005,616 deaths from 148 cities in the U.S. from 1973 through 2006. We fit city specific Poisson regressions to examine the effect of temperature on mortality separately for each month of the year, using penalized splines. We used cluster analysis to group cities with similar weather patterns, and combined results across cities within clusters using meta-smoothing. There was substantial variation in the effects of the same temperature by month. Heat effects were larger in the spring and early summer and cold effects were larger in late fall. In addition, heat effects were larger in clusters where high temperatures were less common, and vice versa for cold effects. The effects of a given temperature on mortality vary spatially and temporally based on how unusual it is for that time and location. This suggests changes in variability of temperature may be more important for health as climate changes than changes of mean temperature. More emphasis should be placed on warnings targeted to early heat/cold temperature for the season or month rather than focusing only on the extremes. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1476-069X-13-89) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.