Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change.
Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.230423297
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发表时间：
2000-11
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
C. Perry;K. Hsü
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Perry;K. Hsü
虽然气候变化的过程尚未完全了解，但一个重要的因果候选者是太阳总输出的变化。各种气候代用数据中报告的周期显示出一种趋势，即模拟基本太阳周期长度（11年）乘以2（N）（其中N等于正整数或负整数）的基波序列。一个简单的加性模型的总太阳输出变化的基本谐波周期的振幅略有增加叠加的进展。该模型的时间轴被校准到距今9,000年前的更新世/全新世边界。校准模型进行了比较，地球物理，考古和历史证据的温暖或寒冷的气候在全新世。世界范围内几个世纪以来气候较冷的时期被称为“小冰河时代”，类似于公元1800年至公元1800年的时期。1280-1860年，大约每1,300年重复一次，与模型太阳输出的波动很好地对应。对过去1000年气候敏感历史的更详细的研究进一步支持了这个模型。将该模型外推到未来表明，在接下来的几个世纪里，地球会逐渐变冷，间歇性的小幅升温，并在未来500年内恢复到接近小冰期的状态。这一冷却期之后，大约1,500年后，可能会恢复到类似于以前的全新世最高温度的高温条件。
Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2(N) (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called "little ice ages," similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280-1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1, 000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.