Mexico and U.S. power systems under variations in natural gas prices
Mexico and U.S. power systems under variations in natural gas prices
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112378
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发表时间：
2021-09
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Luis Sarmiento;Anahi Molar-Cruz;Charalampos Avraam;Maxwell Brown;Juan Rosellón;Sauleh Siddiqui;Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Luis Sarmiento;Anahi Molar-Cruz;Charalampos Avraam;Maxwell Brown;Juan Rosellón;Sauleh Siddiqui;Baltazar Solano Rodriguez
这项研究考察了天然气价格对墨西哥和美国电力系统的影响。为此，我们通过软链接电力和能源系统的三个不同的技术经济自下而上模型、一个天然气部门的局部均衡模型和一个墨西哥能源部门的局部均衡模型，开发了一个完整的建模框架。我们的结果显示了几个有趣的结果：高天然气价格在短期内增加了碳密集型技术的使用，并在更长的时间间隔内促进了可再生投资，在早期增加了排放，之后又减少了排放。在系统成本方面，由于更多的资本密集型绿色电力和较低的原材料能源载体支出，从长远来看，资本成本上升，运营成本下降。此外，我们看到，当天然气价格较低时，天然气需求会增加，通过天然气设施更便宜的能源投入和电力系统中资本密集型可再生设施所占的较低份额，降低长期资本和运营成本。在排放方面，低天然气价格减少了美国的煤炭使用量，减少了人为排放，直到优化期的最后阶段。对于墨西哥，他们在不同的模型中显示了不同的结果。政策制定者可以利用这项研究的结果来了解天然气价格对墨西哥和美国能源部门的影响。
This study examines the impact of natural gas prices on the power systems of Mexico and the United States. For this, we develop an integrated modeling framework by soft linking three different techno-economic bottom-up models of the power and energy systems, one partial equilibrium model of the natural gas sector, and a partial equilibrium model of the Mexican energy sector. Our results show several interesting results: high natural gas prices raise the use of carbon-intensive technologies in the short-term and boost renewable investments at longer time intervals, increasing emissions in earlier periods and reducing them thereafter. Regarding system costs, because of more capital-intensive green power and lower expenditures in raw energy carriers, capital costs rise and operating costs decrease in the long haul. Furthermore, we see an increase in natural gas demand when its price is low, reducing long-term capital and operating costs through cheaper energy inputs in natural gas facilities and a lower share of capital-intensive renewable facilities in the power system. Concerning emissions, low natural-gas prices decrease coal use in the United States, reducing anthropogenic emissions until the last stages of the optimization period. For Mexico, they show heterogeneous results across models. Policymakers can use this study's results to understand the influence of natural gas prices in the Mexican and United States energy sectors.