Impacts of Sea Level Rising on Flooding in Coastal Cities: A Case Study in Bangkok, Thailand
Impacts of Sea Level Rising on Flooding in Coastal Cities: A Case Study in Bangkok, Thailand
复制标题
海平面上升对沿海城市洪水的影响：以泰国曼谷为例
DOI：
10.11188/seisankenkyu.57.334
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Shulian Niu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Dutta;Shulian Niu
全球近20%的人口居住在距离海岸30公里的范围内（Cohen等人，由于人口的迅速增长、沿海地区的发展和移民，预计到2025年将翻一番。由于全球变暖，海平面上升，在20世纪的沿海地区已被目睹（Church等人，2001年）。根据2001年的一项研究，政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）预测，到21世纪末，全球平均海平面（msl）可能上升88厘米（沃森，2001年）。海平面上升对沿海人口和环境产生了诸多不利影响，如海水入侵、海岸线侵蚀、沿海洪水淹没强度和频率增大等。许多位于主要河流入海口的沿海低洼城市，经常遭受洪水侵袭，受海平面上升的影响，遭受严重洪水的威胁更大。由于海拔较低，许多沿海城市已经面临严重的洪水问题，海平面上升可能会加剧这些问题。到目前为止，只有少数国家在这方面进行了研究，并计划如何处理这些问题。因此，有必要评估海平面上升对沿海城市洪水的影响，以便利用包括APN、教科文组织国际水文计划（Dam，2003年）在内的许多国际组织倡导的建模工具进行适当的风险管理。本文介绍了一个案例研究的结果进行分析的洪水特性在曼谷海平面上升的情况下。采用一个基于物理的分布式水文模型，结合地面和河流流量，模拟洪水的情况下，由于不同程度的海平面上升。以近几十年的实测资料为基准，考虑最坏洪水期的输入条件和上游边界条件。该研究的目的是捕捉洪水的宏观图片，仅利用1公里分辨率的表面高程来概述洪水情况，而不涉及城市地形和排水的微观细节。
Almost twenty percent of the global population lives within 30 kilometers of the coast (Cohen et al., 1997) and it is expected to become double by 2025 due to rapid growth of population, developments of coastal zones and migration. Rise of sea level, due to global warming, has been witnessed in coastal regions in the 20th Century (Church et al. 2001). Based on a 2001 study, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global mean sea level (msl) may rise as much as 88 cm by the end of the 21st century (Watson, 2001). Sea level rising has many adverse impacts on coastal population and environment such as saline water intrusion, erosion of shorelines, amplified intensity and frequency of coastal flood inundation, etc. Many of the low lying coastal cities, which are located at the estuary of major rivers and frequently affected by floods, are under greater threat of severe floods due to sea level rising. Many coastal cities have already been facing severe flood problems due to lower elevation and sea level rise will potentially worsen such problems. So far only a few studies have been conducted in this direction and a very few countries have planned the ways to deal with these problems. It is therefore necessary to assess impacts of sea level rising on flooding in coastal cities towards proper risk management utilizing modeling tools as advocated by many international organizations including APN, UNESCO’s IHP (Dam, 2003). This paper presents the outcomes of a1 case study conducted to analyze the flood characteristics in Bangkok under sea level rising scenarios. A physically based distributed hydrological model, which combines surface and river flow, was adopted to simulate the flood scenarios due to different magnitudes of sea level rising. Input rainfalls and upstream boundary conditions of a worst flood period were considered based on the records of the last few decades as the baseline for modeling. The study was aimed to capture a macro picture of flooding to present an overview of the flood situation utilizing only surface elevation of 1km resolution without going into micro details of urban topography and drainage.