A method for the analysis of assumptions in model-based environmental assessments
A method for the analysis of assumptions in model-based environmental assessments
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.06.009
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发表时间：
2011-03-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Petersen, Arthur C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kloprogge, Penny;van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.;Petersen, Arthur C.
当分析人员对复杂的环境问题进行基于模型的科学评估时，他们必须做出许多假设。这在某种程度上不可避免地涉及到分析师的主观判断。尽管基于模型的评估的潜在价值性在文献中被广泛质疑，但到目前为止，这还没有导致分析这种价值性的系统战略。在这篇文章中，提出了一种新的方法来识别、审查和确定假设的优先顺序，以便评估重要假设的潜在价值，并以明确和透明的方式处理这些潜在的价值负载假设。使用所谓的谱系矩阵分析了这些假设的潜在价值。该矩阵涉及认识性(一般的和受纪律约束的)和非认知性的(社会政治和实践)价值观。该方法可由与同行和利益攸关方合作进行评估的分析员或外部审查员应用。在这里，对第五次荷兰环境展望中用来计算因臭氧暴露而死亡和紧急住院的指标的模型链的方法进行了说明。通过一个研讨会确定了计算链中最薄弱的环节。这种分析假设的方法使分析人员能够做出有意识、有基础、透明的选择，并找出链中对与评估报告的受众沟通非常重要的问题。(C)2009爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
When analysts do model-based scientific assessments of complex environmental problems, they have to make many assumptions. This inevitably involves - to some degree - subjective judgements by the analysts. Although the potential value-ladenness of model-based assessments has been extensively problematized in literature, this has not so far led to a systematic strategy for analyzing this value-ladenness. In this article, a new method is presented to identify, review, and prioritize assumptions in order to assess the potential value-ladenness of important assumptions and to deal with these potentially value-laden assumptions in an explicit and transparent manner. The potential value-ladenness of the assumptions is analyzed using a so-called pedigree matrix. The matrix addresses epistemic (general and discipline-bound) and non-epistemic (socio-political and practical) values. The method can be applied by the analysts doing the assessment in collaboration with peers and stakeholders or by external reviewers. Here, the method is illustrated for the modelling chain that was used to calculate the indicator 'death and emergency hospital admittances due to the exposure to ozone' in the Fifth Dutch Environmental Outlook. The weakest links of the calculation chain were identified through a workshop. This method for the analysis of assumptions enables the analysts to make conscious, well-underpinned, transparent choices, and pinpoints the issues in the chain that are important to communicate to the audience of the assessment report. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.