Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality?
Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envres.2012.09.001
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Tong, Shilu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo, Yuming;Barnett, Adrian G.;Tong, Shilu
大多数研究城市温度与死亡率关联的研究都使用一个地点的温度或多个地点网络的平均值。由于城市热岛等影响，整个城市的温度存在差异，这可能会导致测量误差。我们研究了与使用非空间温度的时间序列模型相比，使用空间分辨温度的时空模型是否在温度和死亡率之间产生了不同的关联。我们获得了2000年至2004年澳大利亚布里斯班市163个地区的每日死亡率数据。我们使用普通克里格法根据19个监测点对全市的空间温度变化进行插值。我们使用时空模型来研究空间分辨温度对死亡率的影响。此外，我们还使用时间序列模型来检查单个站点的非空间温度和三个站点的平均温度。我们使用平方皮尔逊尺度残差来比较模型拟合。我们发现克里格温度与观测到的温度一致。使用克里格温度数据的时空模型比使用单个站点或三个站点数据的平均值的时间序列模型产生的模型拟合略好。尽管拟合效果更好，但时空和时间序列模型在温度和死亡率之间产生了类似的关联。总之，使用非空间温度的时间序列模型与时空模型一样能够很好地估计全市温度与死亡率之间的关联。 (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. 保留所有权利。
Most studies examining the temperature-mortality association in a city used temperatures from one site or the average from a network of sites. This may cause measurement error as temperature varies across a city due to effects such as urban heat islands. We examined whether spatiotemporal models using spatially resolved temperatures produced different associations between temperature and mortality compared with time series models that used non-spatial temperatures. We obtained daily mortality data in 163 areas across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. We used ordinary kriging to interpolate spatial temperature variation across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. We used a spatiotemporal model to examine the impact of spatially resolved temperatures on mortality. Also, we used a time series model to examine non-spatial temperatures using a single site and the average temperature from three sites. We used squared Pearson scaled residuals to compare model fit. We found that kriged temperatures were consistent with observed temperatures. Spatiotemporal models using kriged temperature data yielded slightly better model fit than time series models using a single site or the average of three sites' data. Despite this better fit, spatiotemporal and time series models produced similar associations between temperature and mortality. In conclusion, time series models using non-spatial temperatures were equally good at estimating the city-wide association between temperature and mortality as spatiotemporal models. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.