Margins of Safety and Weight of the Argument in Generating Financial Fragility
Margins of Safety and Weight of the Argument in Generating Financial Fragility
复制标题
造成金融脆弱性的安全边际和争论的分量
DOI：
10.1080/00213624.1997.11505945
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发表时间：
1997
影响因子：
0.7
通讯作者：
J. Kregel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Kregel
听过Hy Minsky描述银行信贷员和潜在企业借款人之间谈判的人都不会忘记，对拟议投资项目的预期现金收入和承诺的形式报表的剖析是确定借款人和贷款人可接受的安全边际的过程的焦点。金融脆弱性的概念是围绕着这些安全边际的变化而建立的。[1]正是这些安全边际的缓慢和不易察觉的侵蚀，产生了金融脆弱性。当利润率降到最低限度时，即使是最小的偏离预期的实现创造条件，企业必须偏离其计划的行动，以满足固定的现金流承诺。这可能意味着延迟付款或不良贷款。如果不成功，投资计划可能会被推迟，可能需要出售库存或生产性资产。其结果是一个费雪式的债务-通缩过程，导致价格下跌，真实的债务负担上升，正常的供求规律发生逆转。较低的价格增加了供应，减少了需求。明斯基对这些事件的描述的主要贡献是指出它们是不可避免的。他将其表述为一个内生过程，在这个过程中，持续的经济稳定产生了金融脆弱性。人们通常将这种内生性造成金融脆弱性的过程描述为相互传染的过程，在这种过程中，企业家的乐观情绪，加上他过去的成功记录，最终克服了银行家询问“你打算如何偿还贷款？“因此，随着平静的局势转向
No one who has heard Hy Minsky describe the negotiations between a bank loan officer and a potential business borrower will ever forget it. The dissection of the pro forma statement of prospective cash receipts and commitments for the proposed investment project is the focal point of the process that determines the acceptable margins of safety for both the borrower and the lender. And the idea of financial fragility is built around changes in these margins of safety. 1 It is the slow and imperceptible erosion of these margins of safety that produces financial fragility. When margins have been reduced to the minimum, even the smallest departure of realizations from expectations creates conditions in which firms have to deviate from their planned actions in order to meet fixed cash flow commitments. This can mean delayed payment or distress borrowing. If this is unsuccessful, investment plans may be delayed, and distress sales of inventory or of productive assets may be necessary. The result is a Fisherian debt-deflation process, which produces falling prices, rising real debt burdens, and the reversal of the normal laws of supply and demand. Lower prices increase supply and reduce demand. Minsky's main contribution to the description of these events was to point out that they were inevitable. He formulated them as an endogenous process in which sustained economic stability produced financial fragility. It has become common to describe this process of endogenous creation of financial fragility as one of mutual contagion in which the entrepreneur's optimism, reinforced by his past record of success, eventually overcomes the natural scepticism embodied in the banker's query "How are you going to repay the loan?" Thus, as tranquil conditions turn to