Tracking climate impacts on the migratory monarch butterfly
Tracking climate impacts on the migratory monarch butterfly
复制标题
追踪气候对迁徙帝王蝶的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
K. Oberhauser
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Elise F. Zipkin;L. Ries;R. Reeves;J. Regetz;K. Oberhauser
了解气候对迁徙物种的影响是复杂的，因为这些物种在整个迁徙周期中经历了几个可能以不同方式变化的气候。大多数研究并不是为了梳理出气候在移民路线不同阶段的直接和间接影响。我们评估了春季和夏季气候条件对繁殖帝王蝶的影响，帝王蝶是一种在几代人的时间内完成年度迁徙周期的物种。没有一个单一的、大范围的气候指标可以解释夏季繁殖物候或观察到的种群丰度每年的大幅波动。因此，我们建立了泊松回归模型来帮助解释美国中西部的年度到达时间和丰度。我们结合了德克萨斯州春季迁徙/繁殖阶段以及俄亥俄州主要招募期间随后到达和繁殖期间所经历的气候条件。使用俄亥俄州范围内的蝴蝶监测网络的数据，我们的结果表明，在春季和夏季，气候的行为方式相互矛盾。德克萨斯州春季的高降雨量与俄亥俄州最大的年度种群增长和最早到达夏季繁殖地有关，德克萨斯州的春季中温也是如此。另一方面，帝王企鹅到达夏季繁殖地的时间不受俄亥俄州气候条件的影响。一旦在俄亥俄州进行夏季繁殖，降水对总体丰度的影响很小，而较暖的夏季温度通常与最高的预期丰度有关，但这种影响因每个地点的平均季节性温度而减轻，因为最温暖的地点不会获得高于平均夏季温度的好处。我们的结果突显了气候和迁徙物种的表现之间的复杂关系，并表明试图了解未来气候条件将如何影响帝王鸟将是具有挑战性的。
Understanding the impacts of climate on migratory species is complicated by the fact that these species travel through several climates that may be changing in diverse ways throughout their complete migratory cycle. Most studies are not designed to tease out the direct and indirect effects of climate at various stages along the migration route. We assess the impacts of spring and summer climate conditions on breeding monarch butterflies, a species that completes its annual migration cycle over several generations. No single, broad‐scale climate metric can explain summer breeding phenology or the substantial year‐to‐year fluctuations observed in population abundances. As such, we built a Poisson regression model to help explain annual arrival times and abundances in the Midwestern United States. We incorporated the climate conditions experienced both during a spring migration/breeding phase in Texas as well as during subsequent arrival and breeding during the main recruitment period in Ohio. Using data from a state‐wide butterfly monitoring network in Ohio, our results suggest that climate acts in conflicting ways during the spring and summer seasons. High spring precipitation in Texas is associated with the largest annual population growth in Ohio and the earliest arrival to the summer breeding ground, as are intermediate spring temperatures in Texas. On the other hand, the timing of monarch arrivals to the summer breeding grounds is not affected by climate conditions within Ohio. Once in Ohio for summer breeding, precipitation has minimal impacts on overall abundances, whereas warmer summer temperatures are generally associated with the highest expected abundances, yet this effect is mitigated by the average seasonal temperature of each location in that the warmest sites receive no benefit of above average summer temperatures. Our results highlight the complex relationship between climate and performance for a migrating species and suggest that attempts to understand how monarchs will be affected by future climate conditions will be challenging.