A mechanistic model of snakebite as a zoonosis: Envenoming incidence is driven by snake ecology, socioeconomics and its impacts on snakes.
A mechanistic model of snakebite as a zoonosis: Envenoming incidence is driven by snake ecology, socioeconomics and its impacts on snakes.
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蛇咬伤作为人畜共患疾病的机制模型：中毒发病率是由蛇生态、社会经济学及其对蛇的影响驱动的。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0009867
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发表时间：
2022-05
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
蛇咬伤是世界卫生组织列出的唯一一种未被忽视的传染性热带病（NTD），尽管其生态流行病学与人畜共患感染相似：在脊椎动物宿主接触人类后发生毒液中毒。因此，蛇咬伤风险代表了蛇和人为因素之间的相互作用，但其量化一直受到数据可用性的限制。传染病传播模型有助于减轻NTDs和人畜共患病。在这里，我们用疾病传播模型表示了蛇与人的相互作用，以近似全球热点斯里兰卡蛇咬伤发病率的地理空间估计。蛇咬伤和毒液蛰入是蛇和人类丰度的产物，反映了直接传播的人畜共患病。我们发现，人蛇接触率根据土地覆盖（职业和社会经济地位的替代品），人类和气候对蛇丰度的影响以及蛇的种类而有所不同。我们的研究结果表明，将蛇咬伤作为人畜共患病进行建模，为理解蛇咬伤以及全球环境和人口变化对蛇咬伤负担的可能影响提供了机制生态流行病学基础。蛇咬伤发生在两种脊椎动物接触后，这使得它类似于一些传染病。基于这种相似性，我们使用估计蛇咬伤的发病率，蛇的丰度和生物学，以及人类职业风险的替代品，推导出一个数学表达式，表示蛇咬伤envenoming作为人蛇接触。我们的模型很好地解释了风险的可变性。我们发现，蛇和人类的丰度解释发病率估计和农业相关的职业往往有更频繁的接触蛇，蛇的丰度随着人口的增加而减少。由于蛇的丰度估计和接触率是基于气候或土地覆盖，我们确定了土地利用变化，全球变暖和人口增长影响蛇咬伤流行病学的途径。
Snakebite is the only WHO-listed, not infectious neglected tropical disease (NTD), although its eco-epidemiology is similar to that of zoonotic infections: envenoming occurs after a vertebrate host contacts a human. Accordingly, snakebite risk represents the interaction between snake and human factors, but their quantification has been limited by data availability. Models of infectious disease transmission are instrumental for the mitigation of NTDs and zoonoses. Here, we represented snake-human interactions with disease transmission models to approximate geospatial estimates of snakebite incidence in Sri Lanka, a global hotspot. Snakebites and envenomings are described by the product of snake and human abundance, mirroring directly transmitted zoonoses. We found that human-snake contact rates vary according to land cover (surrogate of occupation and socioeconomic status), the impacts of humans and climate on snake abundance, and by snake species. Our findings show that modelling snakebite as zoonosis provides a mechanistic eco-epidemiological basis to understand snakebites, and the possible implications of global environmental and demographic change for the burden of snakebite. Snakebite envenoming occurs after contact between two vertebrates, which makes it similar to some transmissible diseases. Based on such similarity, we used estimates of snakebite incidence, snake abundance and biology, and surrogates of human occupational risks to derive a mathematical expression that represents snakebite envenoming as human-snake contacts. Our model explained risk variability very well. We found that snake and human abundance explain incidence estimates and that agriculture-linked occupations tend to have more frequent contacts with snakes; and that snake abundance decreases with increasing human population. Because snake abundance estimates and contact rates are based on climate or land cover, we identify a pathway for land use change, global warming and population growth to affect the epidemiology of snakebites.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Laxme, R. R. Senji;Khochare, Suyog;Sunagar, Kartik
通讯作者：
Sunagar, Kartik
DOI：
10.1080/10618600.2016.1172487
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