Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change.
Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change.
复制标题
东南极冰盖对过去和未来气候变化的响应。
DOI：
10.1038/s41586-022-04946-0
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Stokes CR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Stokes CR
东南极冰盖包含了地球上绝大多数的冰川冰（约52米的海平面），但通常被认为比西南极或格陵兰冰盖更不容易受到全球变暖的影响。然而，东南极冰盖的一些地区在最近几十年中已经失去了质量，这促使需要重新评估其对气候变化的敏感性。在这里，我们回顾了东南极冰盖过去温暖时期的反应，综合目前的变化观测和评估未来的预测。一些在过去温暖时期经历了显着质量损失的海洋集水区目前正在失去质量，但大多数预测表明，在21世纪，南极洲东部冰盖的积累增加，使冰盖大致保持平衡。在2100年之后，高排放情景会增加冰排放，并可能在短短几个世纪内使海平面上升数米，但如果巴黎协定将升温限制在2摄氏度以下，就可以避免大量的质量损失。
The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth’s glacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.