Learning from extreme catastrophes
Learning from extreme catastrophes
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DOI：
10.1007/s11166-019-09310-8
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发表时间：
2018-05
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Shinichi Kamiya;Noriyoshi Yanase
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shinichi Kamiya;Noriyoshi Yanase
本文通过调查日本家庭在历史上最昂贵的两次地震灾害后的地震保险投保情况，研究了极端灾害的直接和间接损失经历对未来事件可能性预期的影响。直接损失经历对极端灾难的反应最为强烈，而风险信念更新则是一种全国性的现象。共享个性化信息有助于产生强烈而持久的间接体验效应。研究了过去地震经验对新大地震反应的影响，发现可得性偏差和代表性都有助于解释过去损失经验的影响。此外，Tversky和Kahneman（《心理学通报》76(2),105 - 110,1971）提出的赌徒谬误似乎在间接经历千年大地震后发挥了重要作用。
This article studies the effects of direct and indirect loss experience of extreme catastrophes on expectations concerning the likelihood of future events by investigating the earthquake insurance take-up of Japanese households after the two costliest disasters in history. Direct loss experiences caused the strongest reactions to extreme catastrophes, whereas risk belief updates were a nationwide phenomenon. Sharing personalized information contributed to strong and persistent indirect experience effects. Investigating the effect of past quake experience on reaction to a new major quake, we find that both availability bias and representativeness help explain the effect of past loss experiences. Furthermore, the gambler’s fallacy, as proposed by Tversky and Kahneman (Psychological Bulletin 76(2), 105–110, 1971), appears to play an important role after an indirect experience with a 1000-year earthquake.