Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy: Policy Rules in Practice
Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy: Policy Rules in Practice
复制标题
预测目标作为货币政策策略：实践中的政策规则
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Woodford
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Woodford
预测目标制是央行的一项创新，代表着朝着更多基于规则的政策制定迈出的重要一步，即使它并不是试图遵循最优货币政策理论文献中主要关注的任何一种政策规则。本文讨论了预测目标在多大程度上可以被视为政策规则的一个例子，以及在什么情况下它将代表一个理想的规则，以期对预测目标央行目前使用的方法提出改进建议。特别注意预测-目标程序的跨期一致性、在编制这类程序中使用的预测时应使用的关于未来政策的假设、目标标准应关注的范围、除通货膨胀预测外的其他预测的相关性，以及货币政策的理想目标标准对不断变化的情况的稳健性程度。
Forecast targeting is an innovation in central banking that represents an important step toward more rule-based policymaking, even if it is not an attempt to follow a policy rule of any of the types that have received primary attention in the theoretical literature on optimal monetary policy. This paper discusses the extent to which forecast targeting can be considered an example of a policy rule, and the conditions under which it would represent a desirable rule, with a view to suggesting improvements in the approaches currently used by forecast-targeting central banks. Particular attention is given to the intertemporal consistency of forecast-targeting procedures, the assumptions about future policy that should be used in constructing the forecasts used in such procedures, the horizon with which the target criterion should be concerned, the relevance of forecasts other than the inflation forecast, and the degree of robustness of a desirable target criterion for monetary policy to changing circumstances.