Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century
Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century
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DOI：
10.5194/bg-18-5053-2021
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发表时间：
2021-09
期刊：
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
J. McCarty;J. Aalto;Ville-Veikko Paunu;S. Arnold;S. Eckhardt;Z. Klimont;J. Fain;N. Evangeliou-
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. McCarty;J. Aalto;Ville-Veikko Paunu;S. Arnold;S. Eckhardt;Z. Klimont;J. Fain;N. Evangeliou-
抽象。近年来，泛北极地区经历了越来越极端的火灾季节。北方高纬度地区的火灾是由当前和未来的气候变化、闪电、燃料条件和人类活动驱动的。在这方面，对当前和未来的北极火灾状况进行概念化和参数化，对于火灾和土地管理以及了解当前和预测未来的火灾排放都很重要。本次审查的目标是由北极监测和评估方案工作组确定并向其短期气候作用力专家组提出的政策问题驱动的。本文综述了目前对北极和北方火灾状况变化的认识，特别是火灾活动及其对泛北极未来气候变化的反应对北极理事会各国旨在减缓和适应北方气候变化的影响。我们的综合结论如下。(1)目前和未来的北极火灾，以及邻近的北方地区，是由自然（即闪电）和人为的点火源，包括木材和能源开采引起的火灾，为景观管理规定的燃烧，和旅游活动。关于泛北极地区土著居民的文化燃烧的科学文献很少，俄罗斯北极地区70 N以上的点火源仍然存在问题。(2)气候变化预计将增加极端火灾天气的可能性，增加闪电活动，干燥的植物和地面燃料条件，使北极火灾更有可能发生。(3)在某种程度上，农业土地使用的改变和森林从森林草原向草原、从苔原向针叶林、从针叶林向落叶林的转变，在气候变暖的情况下，可能会增加或减少露天生物量燃烧，这取决于土地使用以及气候驱动的生物群落的变化。然而，在国家和景观尺度上，这些关系并没有很好地建立起来。(4)目前，50和65 N以上野火的黑碳和PM2.5排放量大于住宅燃烧，运输和燃烧等人为部门的排放量。野火排放量从2010年到2020年有所增加，特别是在60 N以上，2020年超过65 N的黑碳排放量中有56%归因于露天生物质燃烧-这表明2020年野火季节有多极端以及未来北极野火季节可能有多严重。(5)在北方地区有效的预防和扑灭野火的方法在北极可能行不通。火灾管理需要适应不断变化的气候、经济发展、土著和当地社区以及脆弱的北方生态系统，包括永久冻土和泥炭地。(6)导致未来北极火灾状况预测和量化不确定性的因素包括卫星系统对北极火灾的低估，地球观测和官方统计数据之间缺乏一致性，以及仍然需要对泥炭和永久冻土景观的位置，条件和以前的火灾返回间隔进行改进。本次审查强调，需要进行大量的研究，以了解不断变化的北极火灾制度对排放和全球气候，生态系统和泛北极社区的地方和区域影响。
Abstract. In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70∘ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2.5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65∘ N are larger than emissions from the anthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60∘ N, with 56 % of black carbon emissions above 65∘ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.