Modelling the effectiveness of collaborative schemes for disease and pest outbreak prevention
Modelling the effectiveness of collaborative schemes for disease and pest outbreak prevention
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109411
复制
发表时间：
2021-01-13
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Touza, Julia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bate, Andrew M.;Jones, Glyn;Touza, Julia
预防疾病暴发具有广泛的利益，这取决于许多因素的行动，但可能因其他因素的不作为而受到损害。本文探讨了自愿生物安全保障计划能否成为抑制动植物病虫害风险的有效机制。参与此类计划的决定是通过联盟博弈来建模的，在联盟博弈中，代理人既要考虑感染的直接成本，也要考虑贸易禁令和流动限制等区域爆发成本。我们发现，政府需要通过激励措施来支持该计划，以减少成员？爆发成本，如预先商定的爆发补偿或优惠监管待遇。如果会员数量多，保证计划可以显著改善生物安全；但是，如果没有政府的激励，稳定的联盟在提高生物安全方面要么规模很小，要么效率低下。政府的支持可以促成大型联盟，并在整体生物安全方面取得强有力的改善，而最佳支持水平是促成稳定大联盟的最小激励因素。以货币或非货币激励为重点的政策可以使生物安全得到更有力的改善。特别是，针对成员的区域疫情成本，如行动限制，可以改善各级支持的生物安全。
Preventing disease outbreaks has widespread benefits that are dependent on the actions of many agents but can be undermined by the inaction of others. This paper explores whether a voluntary biosecurity-related assurance scheme can be an effective mechanism for curbing the risks of animal and plant pests and diseases. The decision to engage in such schemes is modelled using a coalition game where agents consider both direct costs of infection and regional outbreak costs like trade bans and movement restrictions. We find that government needs to support the scheme through incentives that reduce members? outbreak costs like pre-agreed outbreak compensation or preferential regulatory treatment. Assurance schemes could provide significant improvements in biosecurity if membership is high; but without government incentives, stable coalitions are either small or ineffective at improving biosecurity. Government support can lead to large coalitions and robust improvement in overall biosecurity, with the optimal level of support being the smallest incentive that leads to a stable grand coalition. Policies that focus on either monetary or non-monetary incentives can lead to more robust improvements in biosecurity. In particular, targeting regional outbreak costs to members like movement restrictions leads to improved biosecurity for all levels of support.