Impacts of Climate Change on Cotton Yield in China from 1961 to 2010 Based on Provincial Data
Impacts of Climate Change on Cotton Yield in China from 1961 to 2010 Based on Provincial Data
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DOI：
10.1007/s13351-014-4082-7
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发表时间：
2015-06-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Zhang Lizhen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chen Chao;Pang Yanmei;Zhang Lizhen
为了制定科学的对策，利用现有的省级数据，研究了1961-2010年气候变化对中国三大棉花主产区棉花产量的影响。结果表明：(1)平均气温升高增加了西北中国和黄河流域大部分省份的棉花产量，而长江流域的棉花产量却有所下降。此外，与1961-2010年期间的平均值相比，整个研究区域的棉花产量减少了约0.1%。(2)日较差(DTR)下降使部分省份棉花产量下降，而其他省份的DTR效应较好。DTR的变化导致整个研究区域的产量平均下降约5.5%。(3)降水量的变化增加了部分省份的棉花产量，但导致了其他省份的减产。降水变化导致的平均产量下降约为1.1%。结果表明，1961-2010年，中国棉区气温和降水的变化降低了棉花产量，而中国西北棉区存在气温和降水的有利影响。
To develop scientific countermeasures, the impacts of climate change on cotton yield during 1961-2010 in three major cotton-producing regions of China were studied by using the available provincial data. The results indicate that (1) a rise in average temperature increased the cotton yield in most provinces of Northwest China and the Yellow River valley; however, the rise in average temperature decreased the cotton yield in the Yangtze River valley. Moreover, cotton production across the entire study region was reduced by approximately 0.1% relative to the average during 1961-2010. (2) A decrease in diurnal temperature range (DTR) reduced cotton yield in some provinces, while a beneficial DTR effect was observed in the other provinces. Changes in DTR resulted in an average decrease in production by approximatly 5.5% across the entire study region. (3) A change in the amount of precipitation increased the cotton yield in some provinces; however, it caused a decrease in other provinces. The decrease in average production due to the change in precipitation was approximately 1.1%. We concluded that the changes in temperature and precipitation decreased cotton yields in China, while beneficial effects of temperature and precipitation existed in the cotton-growing regions of Northwest China during 1961-2010.