System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World
System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World
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发表时间：
2002-05
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通讯作者：
J. Sterman
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作者：
J. Sterman
今天的问题经常作为昨天解决方案的意想不到的后果出现。社会制度经常遭受政策阻力，即善意的干预往往会被系统对干预本身的反应所挫败。系统动力学领域由Jay Forrester于20世纪50年代在麻省理工学院创立，旨在帮助我们了解我们所处的复杂系统的结构和动态，设计用于持续改进的高杠杆政策，并催化成功的实施和变革。利用工程控制理论和现代非线性动力系统理论，系统动力学通常涉及开发形式模型和管理飞行模拟器�，以捕捉复杂的动态，并为学习和策略设计创造环境。与纯工程问题不同的是，任何现有的系统都存在独特的挑战，包括长期的视野、跨学科边界的问题、开发可靠的人类行为模型的需要，以及实验测试的巨大困难。社会制度的成功变革还需要广泛的人积极参与建模和政策设计过程，这些人往往缺乏技术培训。在这篇文章中，我讨论了有效使用系统动力学的要求，并用一个成功的应用程序来说明一个困难的商业问题。
Todays problems often arise as unintended consequences of yesterdays solutions. Social systems often suffer from policy resistance, the tendency for well-intentioned interventions to be defeated by the response of the system to the intervention itself. The field of system dynamics, created at MIT in the 1950s by Jay Forrester, is designed to help us learn about the structure and dynamics of the complex systems in which we are embedded, design high-leverage policies for sustained improvement, and catalyze successful implementation and change. Drawing on engineering control theory and the modern theory of nonlinear dynamical systems, system dynamics often involves the development of formal models andmanagement flight simulators� to capture complex dynamics, and to create an environment for learning and policy design. Unlikepureengineering problemsif any existhuman systems present unique challenges, including long time horizons, issues that cross disciplinary boundaries, the need to develop reliable models of human behavior, and the great difficulty of experimental testing. Successful change in social systems also requires the active participation of a wide range of people in the modeling and policy design process, people who often lack technical training. In this paper I discuss requirements for the effective use of system dynamics and illustrate with a successful application to a difficult business issue.