Breaking the habit: Measuring and predicting departures from routine in individual human mobility
Breaking the habit: Measuring and predicting departures from routine in individual human mobility
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DOI：
10.1016/j.pmcj.2013.07.016
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发表时间：
2013-12-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Jennings, Nicholas R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McInerney, James;Stein, Sebastian;Jennings, Nicholas R.
研究日常生活活动模式的研究人员最近表明，人类的行动通常具有很高的可预测性。然而，现有的研究还没有研究这种可预测性的界限，即人类行为暂时从常规模式过渡到高度不可预测的状态。为了解决这一缺陷，我们应对两个相互关联的挑战。首先，我们开发了一种新的信息论度量，称为瞬时熵，用于分析个人的流动性模式，并识别暂时偏离常规的情况。其次，为了预测未来的这种偏离，我们提出了第一个贝叶斯框架，它明确地模拟了例行公事的中断，表明它的表现优于当前最先进的预测者。(C)2013爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Researchers studying daily life mobility patterns have recently shown that humans are typically highly predictable in their movements. However, no existing work has examined the boundaries of this predictability, where human behaviour transitions temporarily from routine patterns to highly unpredictable states. To address this shortcoming, we tackle two interrelated challenges. First, we develop a novel information-theoretic metric, called instantaneous entropy, to analyse an individual's mobility patterns and identify temporary departures from routine. Second, to predict such departures in the future, we propose the first Bayesian framework that explicitly models breaks from routine, showing that it outperforms current state-of-the-art predictors. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.