APPROACHES TO MODELING OVERDISPERSION IN THE ANALYSIS OF MIGRATION
APPROACHES TO MODELING OVERDISPERSION IN THE ANALYSIS OF MIGRATION
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DOI：
10.1068/a251481
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发表时间：
1993-10-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
CONGDON, P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
CONGDON, P
本文讨论了广义Poisson模型和多项式迁移流量和速率模型中的超离散度模型，并说明了它在更广泛的实质性模型规范问题中的重要性。有人认为，实质性规范和过度分散的模型是密切相关的。尽可能考虑估计超分散形式的简化方法--矩方法和伪似然方法。过度分散是在与跨不同目的地、在空间上相邻的起点和目的地之间以及在不同时间段之间的迁移相关的关联效应的更广泛的背景下设定的。用于说明模型发展的数据来自人口普查和调查办公室的纵向研究、十年一次的人口普查和国家卫生服务中心登记册。
In this paper the modelling of overdispersion in generalised Poisson and multinomial models of migration flows and rates is considered, and its importance within the wider question of substantive model specification is shown. It is argued that substantive specification and the modelling of overdispersion are closely interrelated. Simplified ways of estimating the form of overdispersion-moments methods and pseudo-likelihood-are considered wherever possible. Overdispersion is set within the broader context of correlation effects which relate to migration-correlation across different destinations, between spatially adjacent origins and destinations, and between different time periods. The data used to illustrate the modelling development are drawn from the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys Longitudinal Study, the decennial Census, and the National Health Service Central Register.