Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland
Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland
复制标题
使用响应面 II 气候变化对洪水频率的概率影响：苏格兰
DOI：
10.1007/s10113-013-0564-x
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
N. Reynard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Kay;S. Crooks;Helen N. Davies;N. Reynard
本文采用敏感性框架的方法来看待气候变化对20年重现期洪峰的概率影响，通过应用一组典型的响应面旁边的概率英国气候预测（UKCP09）的10个流域地区在苏格兰。两人的第一篇论文对英格兰和威尔士的10个流域地区使用了相同的方法。本文开发的方法，苏格兰，首先使更好地估计苏格兰集水区的响应类型。然后，对于英格兰和威尔士，潜在的影响范围显示在苏格兰的每个流域地区的不同类型的集水区，并估计区域平均影响范围。结果表明，不同类型的集水区和区域之间的影响存在明显差异。阿盖尔和西部高地地区的影响最大，而苏格兰东北部地区的影响最小。苏格兰的总体幅度一般小于英格兰和威尔士。
This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales.