The pace of governed energy transitions: Agency, international dynamics and the global Paris agreement accelerating decarbonisation processes?
The pace of governed energy transitions: Agency, international dynamics and the global Paris agreement accelerating decarbonisation processes?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.erss.2016.08.016
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发表时间：
2016-12
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
F. Kern;Karoline S. Rogge
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Kern;Karoline S. Rogge
最近关于能源转型的时间动态的辩论至关重要，因为开始摆脱化石燃料的主要原因之一是应对气候变化。像我们历史上看到的那样，漫长的过渡需要数十年甚至数百年的时间，不太可能有助于实现气候变化缓解目标。因此，能源转型的步伐以及能否加快是一个关键的学术和政策问题。我们的论点是，虽然历史对于理解转型的动态是重要的，但历史性转型的步伐只是在一定程度上是未来的良好指南。我们同意索瓦库尔[1]的观点，即过去已经发生了更快的转变，因此全球未来也可能发生更快的转变。我们持乐观态度的关键原因是，历史性的能源转型没有得到有意识的管理，而今天，各种各样的行为者正在积极尝试管理向低碳能源系统的过渡。此外，国际创新动力可以有利于加快全球低碳转型。最后，2015年的巴黎协议首次展示了向低碳经济迈进的全球承诺，从而表明了促进快速转型和克服阻力所需的政治意愿，例如来自基础设施投资不足的现有企业的阻力。
The recent debate on the temporal dynamics of energy transitions is crucial since one of the main reasons for embarking on transitions away from fossil fuels is tackling climate change. Long-drawn out transitions, taking decades or even centuries as we have seen historically, are unlikely to help achieve climate change mitigation targets. Therefore, the pace of energy transitions and whether they can be sped up is a key academic and policy question. Our argument is that while history is important in order to understand the dynamics of transitions, the pace of historic transitions is only partly a good guide to the future. We agree with Sovacool’s [1] argument that quicker transitions have happened in the past and may therefore also be possible in the future globally. The key reason for our optimism is that historic energy transitions have not been consciously governed, whereas today a wide variety of actors is engaged in active attempts to govern the transition towards low carbon energy systems. In addition, international innovation dynamics can work in favour of speeding up the global low-carbon transition. Finally, the 2015 Paris agreement demonstrates a global commitment to move towards a low carbon economy for the first time, thereby signalling the required political will to foster quick transitions and to overcome resistance, such as from incumbents with sunk infrastructure investments.