The future of evolution.
The future of evolution.
复制标题
进化的未来。
DOI：
10.1016/s0169-5347(00)01915-7
复制
发表时间：
2000
影响因子：
16.8
通讯作者：
Blackburn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kark;Blackburn
进化研究通常侧重于对过去发生的机制和过程的研究，试图了解生命多样性的过去和当前模式。进化的未来被认为是不太频繁。尽管如此，生物学家们不得不越来越多地思考未来，因为我们要面对人类引起的环境变化在当地、区域和全球范围内所造成的后果。这些变化很可能会影响未来的进化过程和方向。然而，这种相互作用是相互的。生物系统对环境变化的进化反应将决定，也许有助于改善这些变化的长期影响。因此，有令人信服的理由将进化思想和原则与保护研究和决策相结合。在最近的一次美国国家科学院学术讨论会上，来自广泛的进化和生态学科的发言者和与会者讨论了这些问题。会议的第一天包括正式的演讲，并开始考虑我们可以从过去学到什么。这里的一个核心问题是，目前人类引起的灭绝事件中生物多样性丧失的模式是否与化石记录中已知的“五大”大规模灭绝中所见的模式相媲美。在大规模灭绝事件中丢失的物种的特征与背景灭绝中丢失的物种不同。值得注意的是，具有广泛地理范围的物种对背景干扰的抵抗力更强，但对群体事件的抵抗力较低（大卫雅布隆斯基，美国伊利诺伊州芝加哥大学）。然而，物种产生物种-新物种更有可能来自分布范围更大的物种，这为导致异地分布的环境障碍提供了更大的目标（Michael Rosenzweig，美国图森亚利桑那大学）。因此，目前的灭绝事件是否具有大规模灭绝的特征，可能会对未来进化过程重新建立生物多样性水平的能力产生影响，而不仅仅是生物多样性丧失造成的。在这方面，有趣的是，在质量增加之后，
Evolutionary research often focuses on the study of mechanisms and processes that occurred in the past, in an attempt to understand both past and current patterns in the diversity of life. The future of evolution has been considered less frequently. Nevertheless, biologists are having to think more and more about the future, as we face up to the consequences of human-induced environmental changes occurring locally, regionally and globally1. It is probable that these changes will affect future evolutionary processes and directions. However, the interaction is reciprocal. The evolutionary responses of biological systems to environmental changes will determine, and perhaps help ameliorate, the long-term effects of these changes. Thus, there are compelling reasons to integrate evolutionary thinking and principles with conservation research and decision making. These issues were addressed by speakers and participants drawn from a wide range of evolutionary and ecological disciplines at a recent USA National Academy of Sciences colloquium*.The first day of the meeting comprised formal presentations and began with consideration of what we can learn for the future from the deep past. A central issue here was whether patterns of biodiversity loss in the current humaninduced extinction event are comparable to those seen in the ‘big five’mass extinctions known from the fossil record2. Characteristics of species lost in mass extinction events differ from those lost in background extinctions3. Notably, species with extensive geographic ranges are more resistant to background extinctions, but less so to mass events (David Jablonski, University of Chicago, IL, USA). However, species beget species–new species might be more likely to derive from species with larger ranges, which provide a larger target for environmental barriers that lead to allopatry (Michael Rosenzweig, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA). Thus, whether the current extinction event has characteristics of a mass extinction might have consequences for the future ability of evolutionary processes to re-establish levels of biodiversity beyond those caused simply by biodiversity loss. In this regard, it is interesting that a time lag of several million years often occurs following mass