CHANGING IDEAS IN HYDROLOGY - THE CASE OF PHYSICALLY-BASED MODELS
CHANGING IDEAS IN HYDROLOGY - THE CASE OF PHYSICALLY-BASED MODELS
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DOI：
10.1016/0022-1694(89)90101-7
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发表时间：
1989-01-30
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
BEVEN, K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
BEVEN, K
本文认为，在水文实际预报中应用基于物理的模型存在一些基本问题。这些问题的结果从模型方程的局限性相对于一个异构的现实;缺乏一个理论的亚网格尺度集成;解决方法的实际约束;和参数校准的维数的问题。有人建议，目前大多数应用程序的物理为基础的模型使用它们作为集总概念模型在网格尺度。最近关于物理模型的论文误解和歪曲了这些局限性。有实际的水文问题，需要基于物理的预测，并将继续需要基于物理的模型，但他们的能力的想法必须改变，使未来的应用程序试图获得现实的估计与他们的预测，特别是在评估未来的情况下，管理策略的影响的不确定性。
This paper argues that there are fundamental problems in the application of physically-based models for practical prediction in hydrology. These problems result from limitations of the model equations relative to a heterogeneous reality; the lack of a theory of subgrid scale integration; practical constraints on solution methodologies; and problems of dimensionality in parameter calibration. It is suggested that most current applications of physically-based models use them as lumped conceptual models at the grid scale. Recent papers on physically-based models have misunderstood and misrepresented these limitations. There are practical hydrological problems requiring physically-based predictions, and there will continue to be a need for physically-based models but ideas about their capabilities must change so that future applications attempt to obtain realistic estimates of the uncertainty associated with their predictions, particularly in the case of evaluating future scenarios of the effects of management strategies.