Estimation of failure probabilities in the presence of competing risks: New representations of old estimators
Estimation of failure probabilities in the presence of competing risks: New representations of old estimators
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DOI：
10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19990330)18:6
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发表时间：
1999-03-30
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Storer, BE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gooley, TA;Leisenring, W;Storer, BE
在统计学和医学文献中都受到关注的一个主题是受竞争风险影响的终点的失败概率估计。尽管如此，在这种情况下使用Kaplan-Meier估计的补充并解释为失败概率并不罕见。然而，如果需要一个可以用这种方式解释的估计值，累积发生率估计值是在这种情况下使用的适当工具。我们认为，Kaplan-Meier估计和累积发生率估计的更常见表示并不容易解释和理解这种解释。因此，我们提出了一个表示的方式，通常不会看到每个估计，每个表示利用的概念，删失的意见是'重新分配到右边。“我们认为这些可以让我们对每个估计值有一个更直观的理解，因此可以理解为什么Kaplan-Meier方法在存在竞争风险的情况下不适合用于估计目的，而累积发生率估计值是合适的。版权所有（C）1999约翰威利父子有限公司。
A topic that has received attention in both the statistical and medical literature is the estimation of the probability of failure for endpoints that are subject to competing risks. Despite this, it is not uncommon to see the complement of the Kaplan-Meier estimate used in this setting and interpreted as the probability of failure. If one desires an estimate that can be interpreted in this way, however, the cumulative incidence estimate is the appropriate tool to use in such situations. We believe the more commonly seen representations of the Kaplan-Meier estimate and the cumulative incidence estimate do not lend themselves to easy explanation and understanding of this interpretation. We present, therefore, a representation of each estimate in a manner not ordinarily seen, each representation utilizing the concept of censored observations being 'redistributed to the right.' We feel these allow a mote intuitive understanding of each estimate and therefore an appreciation of why the Kaplan-Meier method is inappropriate for estimation purposes in the presence of competing risks, while the cumulative incidence estimate is appropriate. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.