Quantifying the wind dispersal of Culicoides species in Greece and Bulgaria
Quantifying the wind dispersal of Culicoides species in Greece and Bulgaria
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DOI：
10.4081/gh.2007.266
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发表时间：
2007-05-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Hendrickx, G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ducheyne, E.;De Deken, R.;Hendrickx, G.
本文检验了库蠓（双翅目：Ceratopogonidae）物种可以通过风长距离传播的假设。蠓的移动模式是根据农场之间蓝舌病疫情的传播模式间接推断出来的（使用希腊、保加利亚和土耳其 1999-2001 年的疫情数据），然后与同时发生的风模式进行匹配。一般方法是根据欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 的欧洲 ReAnalysis-40 (ERA-40) 数据集的水平和垂直风分量来确定进出每个爆发地点的风轨迹。计算每次爆发从记录前一周到记录后一周期间的前向轨迹（顺风或风矢量指向的位置）和后向轨迹（逆风或风矢量起源的位置）。然后，考虑到所涉及的不同血清型，将这些风轨迹与一般爆发模式进行比较。研究发现，风的轨迹可以与爆发病例的时间分布相匹配。此外，分子证据证实了受感染媒介通过计算的风轨迹的传播。结论是，所提出的方法适用于量化受感染的库蠓通过风传播的风险，并且该方法可以构成蓝龙病区域早期预警系统的重要组成部分。
This paper tests the hypothesis that Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) species can be propagated by wind over long distances. Movement patterns of midges were inferred indirectly from patterns of the spread of bluetongue outbreaks between farms (using outbreak data from 1999-2001 for Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey) and then matched to concurrent wind patterns. The general methodology was to determine wind trajectories to and from each outbreak site based on the horizontal and vertical wind components of the European ReAnalysis-40 (ERA-40) dataset from the European centre for medium-range weather forecast (ECMWF). Forward trajectories (downwind or where the wind-vectors pointed to) and backward trajectories (upwind or where the wind-vectors originated from) were calculated for each Outbreak for the period from one week before to one week after it had been recorded. These wind trajectories were then compared with the general outbreak patterns taking into consideration the different serotypes involved. It was found that the wind trajectories could be matched to the temporal distribution of the outbreak cases. Furthermore, the spread of the infected vector via the Calculated wind trajectories was corroborated by Molecular evidence. The conclusion is that the methodology presented is appropriate for quantifying the risk of spread of infected Culicoides midges by Wind and that this approach Could form an important component of a regional early-warning system for bluerongue.