Current systematic carbon-cycle observations and the need for implementing a policy-relevant carbon observing system
Current systematic carbon-cycle observations and the need for implementing a policy-relevant carbon observing system
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DOI：
10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Zehner, C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ciais, P.;Dolman, A. J.;Zehner, C.
需要一个全球一体化的碳观测和分析系统，以提高对全球碳循环的基本认识，提高我们预测未来变化的能力，并验证旨在减少温室气体排放和增加碳固存的政策的有效性。建立一个综合的碳观测系统需要从现有的稀疏，探索性的框架向密集，强大和可持续的系统的所有组成部分：人为排放，大气，海洋和陆地生物圈的转型进展。这篇论文是写给科学家、政策制定者和资助机构的，他们需要对（多样化的）碳观测的现状有一个全面的了解。我们确定了碳观测的现状，以及未来十年可以建立的全球综合碳观测系统的需求和概念要求。一个关键结论是大幅扩展地面观测网络，以达到CO2和CH 4通量以及碳储量的高空间分辨率，以实现政策相关目标，并将通量变化归因于每个区域的潜在过程。为了对南部海洋、热带森林和北极等地区的流量和种群进行诊断，必须以遥感测量来补充现场观测。遥感具有空间覆盖密集和重访频繁的优点。一个关键的挑战是使遥感测量达到长期一致性和准确性的水平，以便能够与地面数据协同作用，将其有效地结合到模型中，以减少不确定性。对化石燃料和土地利用变化排放的观测施加严格的限制，将是部署与政策相关的综合碳观测系统的最大挑战。这将需要比目前自然通量所达到的分辨率和密度高得多的现场和遥感数据，尽管是在小的土地面积上（城市、工业场地、发电厂），以及包括化石燃料CO2代用测量，如CO2中的放射性碳和碳燃料燃烧示踪剂。此外，与政策相关的碳监测系统还应提供协调区域自上而下（基于大气）和自下而上（基于地表）通量估算的机制，涵盖与缓解政策相关的各种空间和时间尺度。此外，应评估每一观测数据流的不确定性。该系统的成功将取决于对监测的长期承诺，取决于加强国际合作以填补目前观测中的空白，取决于持续努力以改善对不同数据流的访问并使数据库具有互操作性，以及取决于根据商定的国际尺度校准该系统的每个组成部分。
A globally integrated carbon observation and analysis system is needed to improve the fundamental understanding of the global carbon cycle, to improve our ability to project future changes, and to verify the effectiveness of policies aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration. Building an integrated carbon observation system requires transformational advances from the existing sparse, exploratory framework towards a dense, robust, and sustained system in all components: anthropogenic emissions, the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere. The paper is addressed to scientists, policymakers, and funding agencies who need to have a global picture of the current state of the (diverse) carbon observations. We identify the current state of carbon observations, and the needs and notional requirements for a global integrated carbon observation system that can be built in the next decade. A key conclusion is the substantial expansion of the ground-based observation networks required to reach the high spatial resolution for CO2 and CH4 fluxes, and for carbon stocks for addressing policy-relevant objectives, and attributing flux changes to underlying processes in each region. In order to establish flux and stock diagnostics over areas such as the southern oceans, tropical forests, and the Arctic, in situ observations will have to be complemented with remote-sensing measurements. Remote sensing offers the advantage of dense spatial coverage and frequent revisit. A key challenge is to bring remote-sensing measurements to a level of long-term consistency and accuracy so that they can be efficiently combined in models to reduce uncertainties, in synergy with ground-based data. Bringing tight observational constraints on fossil fuel and land use change emissions will be the biggest challenge for deployment of a policy-relevant integrated carbon observation system. This will require in situ and remotely sensed data at much higher resolution and density than currently achieved for natural fluxes, although over a small land area (cities, industrial sites, power plants), as well as the inclusion of fossil fuel CO2 proxy measurements such as radiocarbon in CO2 and carbon-fuel combustion tracers. Additionally, a policy-relevant carbon monitoring system should also provide mechanisms for reconciling regional top-down (atmosphere-based) and bottom-up (surface-based) flux estimates across the range of spatial and temporal scales relevant to mitigation policies. In addition, uncertainties for each observation data-stream should be assessed. The success of the system will rely on long-term commitments to monitoring, on improved international collaboration to fill gaps in the current observations, on sustained efforts to improve access to the different data streams and make databases interoperable, and on the calibration of each component of the system to agreed-upon international scales.