Invader Relative Impact Potential: a new metric to understand and predict the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and future invasive alien species
Invader Relative Impact Potential: a new metric to understand and predict the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and future invasive alien species
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DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.12849
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发表时间：
2017-08-01
影响因子：
5.7
通讯作者：
Caffrey, Joseph M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dick, Jaimie T. A.;Laverty, Ciaran;Caffrey, Joseph M.
外来入侵物种的身份和生态影响的预测对于风险评估至关重要，但目前我们缺乏通用和标准化的指标来可靠地预测这些入侵者的可能性和影响程度（即受影响物种种群的可测量变化）。对于没有入侵历史的新兴和潜在的未来入侵者来说，这种需求尤其迫切。理想情况下，这种度量标准也适用于不同的分类和营养组。我们推导出一个新的入侵者生态影响的指标，它融合了：（i）经典的功能反应（FR;消费者人均效应）和数值响应（NR;消费者群体反应）确定消费者影响的方法，即总反应（TR=FRxNR），其中：（ii）Parker-Lonsdale方程，用于入侵者影响，其中影响=范围x丰度x效应（人均效应），转化为;（三）一个新的指标，相对影响潜力（RIP），其中RIP= FRxAbstract。RIP指标是一个入侵者/本地人的比率，其中值>1预测入侵者的生态影响将发生，并且增加值超过1表示影响增加。此外，入侵者/入侵者RIP比率允许比较不同入侵者的生态影响。在各种各样的营养和分类群体，包括捕食者，食草动物，动物和植物（22入侵者/本地系统与47个单独的比较），高影响的入侵者显着相关的较高FR相比，本地营养类似物。然而，RIP指标大大改善了这种关联，对高影响入侵者的预测能力为100%。此外，RIP分数显着和正相关的两个独立的生态影响得分的入侵者，允许入侵外来物种的RIP度量的影响程度的预测。最后，入侵者/入侵者RIP分数也成功地识别和关联具有较高影响力的外来入侵物种。相对影响潜力指标将入侵者的人均影响与其相对于营养相似的本地人的丰度相结合，并成功地预测了外来入侵物种造成生态影响的可能性和程度。由于该指标构成了跨非生物和生物背景依赖性的个人、种群和物种的易于测量的特征，因此甚至可以评估新出现的和未来潜在的外来入侵物种。科学家和从业人员可以迅速利用相对影响潜力指标，并为不同分类和营养组的外来入侵物种的政策和管理提供信息。
Predictions of the identities and ecological impacts of invasive alien species are critical for risk assessment, but presently we lack universal and standardized metrics that reliably predict the likelihood and degree of impact of such invaders (i.e. measurable changes in populations of affected species). This need is especially pressing for emerging and potential future invaders that have no invasion history. Such a metric would also ideally apply across diverse taxonomic and trophic groups. We derive a new metric of invader ecological impact that blends: (i) the classic Functional Response (FR; consumer per capita effect) and Numerical Response (NR; consumer population response) approaches to determining consumer impact, that is, the Total Response (TR=FRxNR), with; (ii) the Parker-Lonsdale equation' for invader impact, where Impact=RangexAbundancexEffect (per capita effect), into; (iii) a new metric, Relative Impact Potential (RIP), where RIP=FRxAbundance. The RIP metric is an invader/native ratio, where values >1 predict that invader ecological impact will occur, and increasing values above 1 indicate increasing impact. In addition, the invader/invader RIP ratio allows comparisons of the ecological impacts of different invaders. Across a diverse range of trophic and taxonomic groups, including predators, herbivores, animals and plants (22 invader/native systems with 47 individual comparisons), high-impact invaders were significantly associated with higher FRs compared to native trophic analogues. However, the RIP metric substantially improves this association, with 100% predictive power of high-impact invaders. Further, RIP scores were significantly and positively correlated with two independent ecological impact scores for invaders, allowing prediction of the degree of impact of invasive alien species with the RIP metric. Finally, invader/invader RIP scores were also successful in identifying and associating with higher impacting invasive alien species.Synthesis and applications. The Relative Impact Potential metric combines the per capita effects of invaders with their abundances, relative to trophically analogous natives, and is successful in predicting the likelihood and degree of ecological impact caused by invasive alien species. As the metric constitutes readily measurable features of individuals, populations and species across abiotic and biotic context-dependencies, even emerging and potential future invasive alien species can be assessed. The Relative Impact Potential metric can be rapidly utilized by scientists and practitioners and could inform policy and management of invasive alien species across diverse taxonomic and trophic groups.