Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China
Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.05.011
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发表时间：
2009-08
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Xingping Zhang;Xiao-Mei Cheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xingping Zhang;Xiao-Mei Cheng
本文运用经济增长、能源消费、碳排放、资本和城市人口的多元模型，考察了中国经济增长、能源消费和碳排放之间的格兰杰因果关系的存在性和方向性。对中国1960-2007年的实证结果表明，长期内存在从GDP到能源消费的单向格兰杰因果关系，以及从能源消费到碳排放的单向格兰杰因果关系。有证据表明，无论是碳排放还是能源消费都不会导致经济增长。因此，中国政府可以在不影响经济增长的前提下，长期奉行保守的能源政策和碳减排政策。
This paper investigates the existence and direction of Granger causality between economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in China, applying a multivariate model of economic growth, energy use, carbon emissions, capital and urban population. Empirical results for China over the period 1960–2007 suggest a unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to carbon emissions in the long run. Evidence shows that neither carbon emissions nor energy consumption leads economic growth. Therefore, the government of China can purse conservative energy policy and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth.