The impact of global warming on the potential suitable planting area of Pistacia chinensis is limited
The impact of global warming on the potential suitable planting area of Pistacia chinensis is limited
复制标题
全球变暖对黄连木潜在适宜种植面积的影响有限
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161007
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Bei Gao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yanlong Guo;Zefang Zhao;Fuxin Zhu;Bei Gao
黄连木。是我国人工种植面积较大的主要木本油料作物之一，具有重要的经济和生态价值。在这里，我们基于 237 个出现数据和 22 个环境变量，探索了 P.P. 的潜在种植面积。通过使用综合模型方法，对中国当前和未来的气候变化情景中的 chinensis 进行了研究。要充分考虑P的潜在种植面积。在特定的气候变化条件和土壤条件的限制下，我们分别建立了两个生态位模型来模拟气候生态位和土壤需求生态位，然后将两个模型的交集作为综合生境适宜性模型的结果，最后利用土地利用数据对CHS模型结果进行过滤。我们的结果表明，在基线条件下，P. 的潜在种植面积。 chinensis在中国的面积约为0.74×106km2。未来预测表明，全球变暖对黄芪潜在适宜种植面积的影响。中华木的数量有限，现有的适宜栖息地大多不受气候变化的影响。随着气温升高，潜在种植面积将向北扩大，南缘略有收缩，面积略有增加。因此，该树种在我国具有很大的种植潜力，应在今后的造林计划中优先考虑。
Pistacia chinensisBunge. is one of the main woody oil crops with a large artificial planting area in China and has important economic and ecological value. Here, based on 237 occurrence data and 22 environmental variables, we explored the potential planting area ofP. chinensisin China in the present and future climate change scenarios by using a comprehensive model method. To fully consider the potential planting area ofP. chinensisunder specific climate change conditions and the limitations of soil conditions, we separately built two niche models to simulate the climate niche and soil demand niche, and then used the intersection of the two models as the result of the comprehensive habitat suitability model, finally, we used land-use data to filter the CHS model result. Our results showed, that under the baseline condition, the potential planting area ofP. chinensiscovers approximately 0.74 × 106km2in China. The future projection showed that the impact of global warming on the potentially suitable planting area ofP. chinensisis limited, and most of the existing suitable habitats are not affected by climate change. With increasing temperature, the potential planting area will expand northward and slightly contract in the south margin, and its area will be slightly increased. Therefore, this species has great planting potential in China and should be given priority in the future afforestation plan.