Global spread of epidemic dengue: the influence of environmental change
Global spread of epidemic dengue: the influence of environmental change
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DOI：
10.2217/fvl.09.55
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发表时间：
2009-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Gubler, Duane J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ooi, Eng-Eong;Gubler, Duane J.
登革热/登革出血热是全球最重要的媒介传播病毒性疾病，世界上一半以上的人口生活在有感染风险的地区。据报道，热带世界各地经常发生周期性流行病，病毒经常通过病毒血症旅行者输入到流行国家和非流行国家。这些事件与最近观察到的与气候变化相关的全球变暖相吻合。本文将探讨这些事件是否巧合。追溯登革热出现的历史，以确定导致病毒和蚊媒传播到新地理区域的主要驱动因素。我们的结论是，人口和人为驱动的环境变化，加上全球化和低效的公共卫生措施，而不是气候变化，是过去 40 年来流行性登革热重新出现和传播的主要驱动力。鉴于联合国预测的全球趋势，这些趋势可能会持续下去。
Dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever is the most important vector-borne viral disease globally, with over half of the world's population living in areas at risk of infection. Frequent and cyclical epidemics are reported throughout the tropical world, with regular importation of the virus via viremic travelers into both endemic and nonendemic countries. These events coincide with the recently observed global warming that is associated with climate change. Whether these events are coincidental is examined in this article. The history of dengue emergence is traced to determine the major drivers responsible for the spread of both the viruses and mosquito vectors to new geographic regions. We conclude that demographic- and anthropogenic-driven environmental changes, combined with globalization and inefficient public health measures rather than climate change, are the principal driving forces for the re-emergence and spread of epidemic dengue in the past 40 years. These trends are likely to continue given the global trends projected by the United Nations.