The biogeography of prediction error: why does the introduced range of the fire ant over-predict its native range?
The biogeography of prediction error: why does the introduced range of the fire ant over-predict its native range?
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1466-8238.2006.00258.x
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Dunn, Robert R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.;Weltzin, Jake F.;Dunn, Robert R.
目的利用物种分布模型预测生物入侵是生态学中一个发展迅速的领域。然而，大多数调查SDM的研究通常忽略预测误差，而是集中在本地分布正确预测入侵范围的区域。我们调查了预测误差的生态意义，预测入侵和本地范围的红火蚁（Solenopsis invicta）（以下简称火蚁）之间的相互比较。我们质疑火蚁在其原生和引入范围内是否占据相似的环境，火蚁在其引入范围内占据的环境如何随着时间的推移相对于其原生范围发生变化，以及火蚁繁殖体可能起源的地方。位置我们开发了南美洲和毗连的美国（US）的模型。方法我们开发了使用遗传算法进行规则集预测的模型（GARP）和12个环境层。使用南美洲本地范围的发生率数据预测美国的引入范围，反之亦然。此外，时间序列数据记录的入侵火蚁在美国被用来预测native range.Results原生范围发生预测的入侵潜力的火蚁，而发生的数据从美国过度预测的南部边界的原生范围。其次，引进的火蚁最初建立在类似于其原生范围的环境中，但随后入侵了更恶劣的环境。时间序列数据表明，火蚁繁殖起源于南部附近的限制，他们的native range.Conclusions我们的研究结果表明，火蚁从外围本地人口建立在一个类似于他们的原生环境的环境中，然后最终扩大到环境中，他们没有发现在他们的原生范围。我们认为，预测的本地和入侵范围之间的相互比较，将有助于更好地了解入侵和本地物种和SDM在预测未来的分布的作用的地理。
Aim The use of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict biological invasions is a rapidly developing area of ecology. However, most studies investigating SDMs typically ignore prediction errors and instead focus on regions where native distributions correctly predict invaded ranges. We investigated the ecological significance of prediction errors using reciprocal comparisons between the predicted invaded and native range of the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) (hereafter called the fire ant). We questioned whether fire ants occupy similar environments in their native and introduced range, how the environments that fire ants occupy in their introduced range changed through time relative to their native range, and where fire ant propagules are likely to have originated.Location We developed models for South America and the conterminous United States (US) of America.Methods We developed models using the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and 12 environmental layers. Occurrence data from the native range in South America were used to predict the introduced range in the US and vice versa. Further, time-series data recording the invasion of fire ants in the US were used to predict the native range.Results Native range occurrences under-predicted the invasive potential of fire ants, whereas occurrence data from the US over-predicted the southern boundary of the native range. Secondly, introduced fire ants initially established in environments similar to those in their native range, but subsequently invaded harsher environments. Time-series data suggest that fire ant propagules originated near the southern limit of their native range.Conclusions Our findings suggest that fire ants from a peripheral native population established in an environment similar to their native environment, and then ultimately expanded into environments in which they are not found in their native range. We argue that reciprocal comparisons between predicted native and invaded ranges will facilitate a better understanding of the biogeography of invasive and native species and of the role of SDMs in predicting future distributions.