High and dry: high elevations disproportionately exposed to regional climate change in Mediterranean-climate landscapes
High and dry: high elevations disproportionately exposed to regional climate change in Mediterranean-climate landscapes
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DOI：
10.1007/s10980-015-0318-x
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发表时间：
2016-06-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Franklin, Janet
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
McCullough, Ian M.;Davis, Frank W.;Franklin, Janet
预测气候驱动的物种分布范围的变化在很大程度上取决于物种对气候变化的暴露程度。山区景观包含广泛的地形气候和土壤特征，被认为是调解范围的变化和缓冲物种的暴露。量化山区地形暴露的精细尺度模式是了解物种对区域气候变化脆弱性的关键一步。Objectives我们展示了一种可转移的，灵活的方法，用于在水分有限，加州山区景观在4个气候变化预测下的耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）第5阶段，（2040-2069）和世纪末（2070-2099）。方法我们制作了一个149年（1951-2099）的模拟气候缺水（CWD）数据集，该数据集与植物分布密切相关，分辨率为30 m，以绘制气候变化暴露地图美国加州州特哈查皮山脉。我们定义的气候变化暴露在偏离1951-1980年的平均值和历史范围内的变异CWD在个别年份和3年移动windows.Results气候变化暴露一般是最大的高海拔在所有未来的预测，虽然我们遇到了温和的地形缓冲向极的斜坡。历史上干旱低地表现出最少的暴露于气候变化。结论在水分有限，地中海气候景观，高海拔地区可能会遇到最大的暴露于气候变化在21世纪世纪。因此，高海拔物种可能特别容易受到持续气候变化的影响，因为栖息地缩小，历史上能源有限的地点未来变得越来越水分有限。
Context Predicting climate-driven species' range shifts depends substantially on species' exposure to climate change. Mountain landscapes contain a wide range of topoclimates and soil characteristics that are thought to mediate range shifts and buffer species' exposure. Quantifying fine-scale patterns of exposure across mountainous terrain is a key step in understanding vulnerability of species to regional climate change.Objectives We demonstrated a transferable, flexible approach for mapping climate change exposure in a moisture-limited, mountainous California landscape across 4 climate change projections under phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for mid-(2040-2069) and end-of-century (2070-2099).Methods We produced a 149-year dataset (1951-2099) of modeled climatic water deficit (CWD), which is strongly associated with plant distributions, at 30-m resolution to map climate change exposure in the Tehachapi Mountains, California, USA. We defined climate change exposure in terms of departure from the 1951-1980 mean and historical range of variability in CWD in individual years and 3-year moving windows.Results Climate change exposure was generally greatest at high elevations across all future projections, though we encountered moderate topographic buffering on poleward-facing slopes. Historically dry lowlands demonstrated the least exposure to climate change.Conclusions In moisture-limited, Mediterranean-climate landscapes, high elevations may experience the greatest exposure to climate change in the 21st century. High elevation species may thus be especially vulnerable to continued climate change as habitats shrink and historically energy-limited locations become increasingly moisture-limited in the future.