Observations of predictive skill for real-time Deterministic Sea Waves from the WaMoS II
Observations of predictive skill for real-time Deterministic Sea Waves from the WaMoS II
复制标题
WaMoS II 实时确定性海浪预测能力的观察
DOI：
10.23919/oceans.2015.7404496
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
E. Thornhill
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Hilmer;E. Thornhill
OceanWaveS公司一直在开发一种原型系统，该系统基于标准的非相干x波段导航雷达，能够预测未来海面高度。结合船舶水动力模拟器，该系统将预测船舶运动。这种系统的应用包括海上作业，例如起重机提升、液化天然气、货物和人员转移。预测结果可被纳入自动化控制系统；例如，浮动风力涡轮机或动态定位系统，或在决策支持系统中使用。本文介绍了三次独立海试预测海面高度与船载参考传感器之间的相关分析结果。尽管忽略了船舶流体力学，但所有海试的T+60秒预测与测量参考的相关性达到80%。预测范围是在预测后180秒内观察到的。
OceanWaveS GmbH has been developing a prototype system, based on standard non-coherent X-band navigational radars, capable of predicting future sea surface elevations. Combined with a vessel hydrodynamic simulator, this system will forecast ship motions. Applications for such a system include offshore operations, e.g. crane lifts, LNG, cargo and personnel transfers. The forecasts may be assimilated into automated control systems; e.g. floating wind turbines or dynamic positioning systems, or used within Decision Support Systems. This article presents correlation analysis results between the predicted sea surface elevations and vessel-mounted reference sensors for three independent sea trials. Despite neglecting vessel hydrodynamics, correlations of forecasts to measured references of 80% are achieved for T+60 seconds predictions for all sea trials. The prediction horizon is observed up to 180 seconds of forecast.