Factors in risk perception
Factors in risk perception
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DOI：
10.1111/0272-4332.00001
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发表时间：
2000-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Sjöberg, L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sjöberg, L
风险感知是一种寻求解释的现象。本文讨论了几种方法，技术风险估计有时是一个强有力的因素，在会计感知风险，但在许多重要的应用，它不是。启发式和偏见，主要是可用性，只占风险感知的一小部分，和媒体内容没有明显牵连的风险感知。心理测量模型可能是最有竞争力的，但它的解释价值只有原始数据方差的20%左右。增加一个“非自然风险”的因素大大改善了心理测量模型。另一方面，文化理论无法解释超过5-10%的感知风险方差，其他价值尺度也同样失败。提出了一个模型，其中的态度，风险敏感性和具体的恐惧被用作解释变量：这个模型似乎可以解释超过30-40%的方差，因此比以前的方法更有前途。该模型提供了一种不同类型的风险感知的心理学解释，它有许多含义，例如，与通常的态度认知分析相比，态度和感知风险之间的关系有不同的方法。
Risk perception is a phenomenon in search of an explanation. Several approaches are discussed in this paper,Technical risk estimates are sometimes a potent factor in accounting for perceived risk, but in many important applications it is not. Heuristics and biases, mainly availability, account for only a minor portion of risk perception, and media contents have not been clearly implicated in risk perception. The psychometric model is probably the leading contender in the held, but its explanatory value is only around 20% of the variance of raw data. Adding a factor of "unnatural risk" considerably improves the psychometric model. Cultural Theory, on the other hand, has not been able to explain more than 5-10% of the variance of perceived risk, and other value scales have similarly failed. A model is proposed in which attitude, risk sensitivity, and specific fear are used as explanatory variables: this model seems to explain well over 30-40% of the variance and is thus more promising than previous approaches. The model offers a different type of psychological explanation of risk perception, and it has many implications, e.g., a different approach to the relationship between attitude and perceived risk, as compared with the usual cognitive analysis of attitude.