Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited references
Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited references
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DOI：
10.1002/asi.23329
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发表时间：
2015-11-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Mutz, Ruediger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bornmann, Lutz;Mutz, Ruediger
许多研究(在信息科学领域)都着眼于科学的发展。在这项研究中，我们重新审视了科学成长的问题。为此，我们(A)使用截至2012年出版年度的最新数据，(B)分析所有学科的数据，并分别分析自然科学和医学和健康科学的数据。此外，数据还用一种先进的统计技术--分段回归分析进行了分析，这种分析可以识别科学史上具有相似增长率的特定部分。这项研究基于两组不同的文献计量学数据：(A)每一出版年度在科学网(WOS，Thomson Reuters)中作为源项目持有的出版物的数量，以及(B)每一引用参考年度来源项目的出版物中被引用的数量。我们观察了自17世纪中期以来科学的发展速度。在对引用文献的分析中，我们确定了科学发展的三个基本增长阶段，每个阶段的增长率都是前一阶段的三倍：从不到1%到18世纪中叶，到两次世界大战之间的2%到3%，以及到2010年的8%到9%。
Many studies (in information science) have looked at the growth of science. In this study, we reexamine the question of the growth of science. To do this we (a) use current data up to publication year 2012 and (b) analyze the data across all disciplines and also separately for the natural sciences and for the medical and health sciences. Furthermore, the data were analyzed with an advanced statistical techniquesegmented regression analysiswhich can identify specific segments with similar growth rates in the history of science. The study is based on two different sets of bibliometric data: (a) the number of publications held as source items in the Web of Science (WoS, Thomson Reuters) per publication year and (b) the number of cited references in the publications of the source items per cited reference year. We looked at the rate at which science has grown since the mid-1600s. In our analysis of cited references we identified three essential growth phases in the development of science, which each led to growth rates tripling in comparison with the previous phase: from less than 1% up to the middle of the 18th century, to 2 to 3% up to the period between the two world wars, and 8 to 9% to 2010.