Quantifying the adverse effect of excessive heat on children: An elevated risk of hand, foot and mouth disease in hot days
Quantifying the adverse effect of excessive heat on children: An elevated risk of hand, foot and mouth disease in hot days
复制标题
量化高温对儿童的不利影响：炎热天患手足口病的风险增加
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.09.089
复制
发表时间：
2016-01-15
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Hao, Yuantao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang, Wangjian;Du, Zhicheng;Hao, Yuantao
背景：手足口病（HFMD）是一种常见的儿童传染病，已成为中国主要的公共卫生问题。相当多的研究集中在气象因素如温度和相对湿度在手足口病发展中的作用。然而，没有研究具体量化了另一个主要环境因素--过热对手足口病的影响。方法：收集2010 - 2012年中国疾病预防控制中心和国家气象信息中心的手足口病病例监测资料和每日气象资料。分布滞后非线性模型被施加到评估过热对手足口病的影响，其变异性在社会经济地位和年龄groups.Results：控制几个潜在的混杂因素的影响后，常见的炎热的日子被发现积极影响手足口病的负担与相对风险（RR）峰值在6天左右的滞后。手足口病在珠江三角洲地区的相对危险度普遍较其他发展中地区为高，持续时间亦较长。在不同年龄组之间的差异方面，3-6岁儿童在过热条件下患手足口病的风险最高，而6岁以上儿童的风险最低。极端炎热的日子的影响的滞后结构是非常相似的，通常炎热的日子，虽然这两种条件的过热的相对效果可能会有所不同的区域.Conclusions：这项研究表明，显着的促进作用，特别是在那些3-6岁和发达地区的手足口病过热。目前的研究结果对于在气候变化和城市化的背景下制定针对地区和年龄的控制计划特别实用和重要。(C)2015年，作者。由爱思唯尔公司出版。这是一篇开放获取的文章，获得了CC BY-NC-ND许可证（http：//creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/）。
Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood infection and has become a major public health issue in China. Considerable research has focused on the role of meteorological factors such as temperature and relative humidity in HFMD development. However, no studies have specifically quantified the impact of another major environmental agent, excessive heat, on HFMD. The current study was designed to help address this research gap.Methods: Case-based HFMD surveillance data and daily meteorological data collected between 2010 and 2012 was obtained from China CDC and the National Meteorological Information Center, respectively. Distributed lag nonlinear models were applied to assess the impact of excessive heat on HFMD and its variability across social-economic status and age groups.Results: After controlling the effects of several potential confounders, the commonly hot days were found to positively affect the HFMD burdens with the relative risk (RR) peaking at around 6 days of lag. The RR of HFMD in the Pearl-River Delta Region was generally higher and persisted longer than that in the remaining developing areas. Regarding the inter-age group discrepancy, children aged 3-6 years old had the highest risk of HFMD under conditions of excessive heat where as those greater than 6 years old had the lowest. The lag structure of the impact of the extremely hot days was quite similar to that of the commonly hot days, although the relative effect of these two kinds of conditions of excessive heat might vary across regions.Conclusions: This study indicated significantly facilitating effects of excessive heat on HFMD especially among those aged 3-6 and from developed areas. Results from the current study were particularly practical and important for developing area-and-age-targeted control programs in the context of climate change and urbanization. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).