[Responses of subtropical conifer plantation to future climate change: a simulation study].
[Responses of subtropical conifer plantation to future climate change: a simulation study].
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发表时间：
2008-09
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通讯作者：
N. Mi;Guiping Yu;X. Wen;Xiao-Min Sun;Shusen Wang
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作者：
N. Mi;Guiping Yu;X. Wen;Xiao-Min Sun;Shusen Wang
采用基于过程的EALCO （ecological assimilation of land and climate observation）生理生态模型，研究了千烟州亚热带针叶林对气候变化情景的响应。结果表明：CO2浓度对人工林碳通量和水通量的影响最大，其次是温度和降水；CO2浓度是人工林生态系统光合总生产力的主要驱动因子，温度和CO2浓度是控制生态系统呼吸的关键环境因子。温度升高显著加快了地上部分的呼吸，而CO2浓度升高对土壤呼吸的影响更大。随着温度的升高，蒸散量增加，但随着CO2浓度的增加，蒸散量减少。在未来气候变化情景下（2100年），该人工林生态系统的净初级生产力将增加22%，表明该生态系统仍有固碳能力。
The responses of subtropical conifer plantation to climate change scenarios were investigated in Qianyanzhou by the process-based physiological-ecological model EALCO (ecological assimilation of land and climate observation). The results showed that CO2 concentration had the greatest effects on the carbon and water fluxes of the plantation, followed by temperature, and precipitation. CO2 concentration was the main driving factor for the gross photosynthesis productivity of this plantation ecosystem, and temperature and CO2 concentration were the key environmental factors controlling the ecosystem respiration. Increasing temperature accelerated the respiration of aboveground part dramatically, while increasing CO2 concentration had greater effects on soil respiration. The evapotranspiration was enhanced by increasing temperature, but reduced by increasing CO2 concentration. Under the future climate changing scenario (the year 2100), the net primary productivity of this plantation ecosystem would be increased by 22%, suggesting that this ecosystem is still capable of sequestrating carbon.