Importance of fossil fuel emission uncertainties over Europe for CO2 modeling: model intercomparison
Importance of fossil fuel emission uncertainties over Europe for CO2 modeling: model intercomparison
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-11-6607-2011
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
P. Peylin;S. Houweling;M. Krol;U. Karstens;C. Rödenbeck;C. Geels;A. Vermeulen;B. Badawy;C. Aulagnier;T. Pregger;F. Delage;G. Pieterse;P. Ciais;M. Heimann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Peylin;S. Houweling;M. Krol;U. Karstens;C. Rödenbeck;C. Geels;A. Vermeulen;B. Badawy;C. Aulagnier;T. Pregger;F. Delage;G. Pieterse;P. Ciais;M. Heimann
抽象。用于量化地表碳通量的反演模拟技术通常假设化石燃料CO2（FFCO 2）排放的不确定性可以忽略不计，年内变化可以忽略不计。为了研究这些假设，我们分析了欧洲四种具有时空差异的化石燃料排放清单之间的差异及其对模型模拟的CO2浓度的影响。大的时间通量变化表征了每小时的场（季节和昼夜周期的~ 40%和~ 80%，峰到峰），并且每年的国家总数平均相差10%，并且对于一些国家高达40%（即，荷兰）。这些排放量已被规定为七种不同的运输模式，导致28个不同的FFCO 2浓度场。与使用恒定排放量时相比，使用时变排放量模拟的地面站点FFCO 2浓度时间序列显示出更大的季节性周期（匈牙利高塔（匈奴）为+2 ppm）和更小的夏季日周期（匈奴为-1 ppm）。所有模拟所涵盖的浓度范围因站点而异，冬季（匈奴峰间浓度高达约10 ppm）通常大于夏季（约5 ppm）。在全球反演中使用的典型欧洲站点，传输模型差异对模拟浓度标准偏差的贡献比排放差异的贡献大2-3倍。这些对每小时（每月）标准偏差的贡献分别为约1.2（0.8）ppm和约0.4（0.3）ppm的运输和排放。第一次比较的模拟浓度与14 C为基础的化石燃料的CO2观测结果表明，大的运输差异仍然阻碍了定量评估/验证的排放清单。使用两种逆模型方法估计的欧洲每月生物圈通量（Fbio）的变化相对较小（小于5%），而年度Fbio的变化（高达~ 0.15%GtC yr −1）仅略小于年度排放总量的差异和欧洲生态系统平均碳汇的30%左右。这些结果表明，迫切需要改进的不仅是运输模型，而且还假设的空间和时间分布的化石燃料排放清单。
Abstract. Inverse modeling techniques used to quantify surface carbon fluxes commonly assume that the uncertainty of fossil fuel CO 2 (FFCO 2 ) emissions is negligible and that intra-annual variations can be neglected. To investigate these assumptions, we analyzed the differences between four fossil fuel emission inventories with spatial and temporal differences over Europe and their impact on the model simulated CO 2 concentration. Large temporal flux variations characterize the hourly fields (~40 % and ~80 % for the seasonal and diurnal cycles, peak-to-peak) and annual country totals differ by 10 % on average and up to 40 % for some countries (i.e., the Netherlands). These emissions have been prescribed to seven different transport models, resulting in 28 different FFCO 2 concentrations fields. The modeled FFCO 2 concentration time series at surface sites using time-varying emissions show larger seasonal cycles (+2 ppm at the Hungarian tall tower (HUN)) and smaller diurnal cycles in summer (−1 ppm at HUN) than when using constant emissions. The concentration range spanned by all simulations varies between stations, and is generally larger in winter (up to ~10 ppm peak-to-peak at HUN) than in summer (~5 ppm). The contribution of transport model differences to the simulated concentration std-dev is 2–3 times larger than the contribution of emission differences only, at typical European sites used in global inversions. These contributions to the hourly (monthly) std-dev's amount to ~1.2 (0.8) ppm and ~0.4 (0.3) ppm for transport and emissions, respectively. First comparisons of the modeled concentrations with 14 C-based fossil fuel CO 2 observations show that the large transport differences still hamper a quantitative evaluation/validation of the emission inventories. Changes in the estimated monthly biosphere flux (Fbio) over Europe, using two inverse modeling approaches, are relatively small (less that 5 %) while changes in annual Fbio (up to ~0.15 % GtC yr −1 ) are only slightly smaller than the differences in annual emission totals and around 30 % of the mean European ecosystem carbon sink. These results point to an urgent need to improve not only the transport models but also the assumed spatial and temporal distribution of fossil fuel emission inventories.