Estimating lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer
Estimating lifetime and age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer
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DOI：
10.1023/a:1009685507602
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发表时间：
1998-01-01
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Feuer, EJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wun, LM;Merrill, RM;Feuer, EJ
终生和年龄条件下的患癌风险估计为公众提供了一个有用的摘要，说明目前的癌症风险以及这种风险与早期和社会某些亚群体之间的比较。这些报告的估计，通常在大众媒体上引用，有可能促进早期发现的努力，提高癌症的认识，并作为研究规划的援助。然而，他们也很容易被误解和害怕一般公众。美国国家癌症研究所和美国癌症协会的监测，流行病学和最终结果（SEER）计划最近开始在年度报告中包括终身和年龄条件下患癌症的风险估计。这些风险估计是基于反映无癌症人群中癌症新发病例的发病率。要计算这些估计涉及癌症患病率的调整，计算横截面从目前的发病率和死亡率的数据中得出的多递减寿命表。本文提出了一个详细的描述方法，得出终身和年龄条件下的风险估计发展癌症。此外，使用三重递减寿命表进行了扩展，调整了外科手术，使个人免于患某种癌症的风险。两个重要的结果，提供了深入了解的基本方法包括在讨论中。首先，终生风险估计不依赖于癌症患病率调整，尽管这不是年龄条件风险估计的情况。第二，当对手术进行校正时，终生风险估计总是较小的，因为手术使人们脱离了患癌症的风险池。该方法适用于身体和子宫NOS癌症，子宫切除术的患病率进行了校正。风险估计的解释和局限性进行了讨论。
Lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer provide a useful summary to the public of the current cancer risk and how this risk compares with earlier periods and among select subgroups of society. These reported estimates, commonly quoted in the popular press, have the potential to promote early detection efforts, to increase cancer awareness, and to serve as an aid in study planning. However, they can also be easily misunderstood and frightening to the general public.The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute and the American Cancer Society have recently begun including in annual reports lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. These risk estimates are based on incidence rates that reflect new cases of the cancer in a population free of the cancer. To compute these estimates involves a cancer prevalence adjustment that is computed cross-sectionally from current incidence and mortality data derived within a multiple decrement life table. This paper presents a detailed description of the methodology for deriving lifetime and age-conditional risk estimates of developing cancer. In addition, an extension is made which, using a triple decrement life table, adjusts for a surgical procedure that removes individuals from the risk of developing a given cancer. Two important results which provide insights into the basic methodology are included in the discussion. First, the lifetime risk estimate does not depend on the cancer prevalence adjustment, although this is not the case For age-conditional risk estimates. Second, the lifetime risk estimate is always smaller when it is corrected for a surgical procedure that takes people out of the risk pool to develop the cancer. The methodology is applied to corpus and uterus NOS cancers, with a correction made for hysterectomy prevalence. The interpretation and limitations of risk estimates are also discussed.