The Ethics of Risk
The Ethics of Risk
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风险伦理
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. L. Fond
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. L. Fond
什么是风险？严格来说，已经确定了两类：“风险”（基于已知的概率）和“不确定性”（基于无法明确识别的知识）。虽然生活通常包含一定程度的不确定性，但某些概率可以量化，就像抛硬币或掷骰子一样。对于每个人来说，即使他们生活在可量化的“风险”中，生活总是有风险的，而且通常人们很难解决风险与利益的冲突。人们的认知常常与风险带来的实际危险不符。很少有人“感觉”到死亡的几率，比如百万分之一的几率，到底意味着什么……我们倾向于强调低概率，低估高概率。”使用统计数据是克服这种不确定性的一种方法；然而，否认和过度自信是更常见的处理方式。
What is risk? Strictly, two categories have been identified: „risk‟ (based upon known probabilities) and „uncertainty‟ (epistemic – based upon what cannot be clearly identified). While life typically contains a measure of uncertainty, certain probabilities can be quantified, much like the tossing of a coin or the roll of a dice. For each individual, even though they live with quantifiable „risk‟, life is always risky, and generally, people have difficulty resolving risk-benefit conflicts. “People‟s perceptions frequently fail to match up with the actual dangers risks pose. Few people have a „feel‟ for what a chance of dying, say a chance of one in a million, really means... We tend to emphasize low probabilities and underestimate those that are high”. The use of statistics is one way to overcome this uncertainty; however, denial and overconfidence are more common ways to deal with it.