Contact surface models for infectious diseases: Estimation from serologic survey data
Contact surface models for infectious diseases: Estimation from serologic survey data
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DOI：
10.1198/016214504000001754
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发表时间：
2005-06-01
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Whitaker, HJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Farrington, CP;Whitaker, HJ
控制传染病需要有关个人接触率的信息。我们提出了一种新的方法，通过一个连续的接触面建模的接触率。这提供了比目前使用的方法更现实和灵活的接触率表示。我们的方法允许建模的异质性来源，由于年龄，个人的影响，和性别。用最大似然法对血清学调查数据进行拟合。这涉及求解将接触表面与感染危险联系起来的积分方程。该方法说明了两个数据集，腮腺炎和风疹和EB病毒和单纯疱疹病毒I型感染。讨论了该方法的优点和缺点，特别是接触面的可识别性。
Controlling of infectious diseases requires information about the rates at which individuals make contact. We propose a novel approach to modeling contact rates via a continuous contact surface. This provides a more realistic and flexible representation of contact rates than currently used methods. Our approach allows modeling of sources of heterogeneity due to age, individual effects, and gender. The models are fitted to serologic survey data by maximum likelihood. This involves solving an integral equation linking the contact surface to the infection hazards. The method is illustrated with two datasets, on mumps and rubella and on Epstein-Barr virus and herpes simplex virus type I infection. The advantages and shortcomings of the method, particularly the identifiability of the contact surface, are discussed.