Trends and projection of heavy snowfall in Hokkaido, Japan as an application of self-organizing map
Trends and projection of heavy snowfall in Hokkaido, Japan as an application of self-organizing map
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自组织地图应用的日本北海道大雪趋势与预测
DOI：
10.1175/jamc-d-21-0085.1
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Mori Masato
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Inatsu Masaru;Kawazoe Sho;Mori Masato
利用天气尺度海平面气压异常自组织图（SOM）分析了日本北海道局地尺度冬季暴雪的频率、历史变化及其对全球变暖的响应。大雪日是指降雪量超过10毫米的日子。结果表明，对于暴雪日数，南海可分为三类：1)北海道以南的温带气旋通道，2)西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压之间的气压模式，3)北海道以东的低压异常。类群1和类群2分别与北海道东南部的广罗市和北海道西部的岩见泽市的暴雪有关，类群3与北海道西部的札幌市的暴雪有关。大集合历史模拟重现了观测到的第2组增加趋势，未来预估显示第2组与西太平洋模式的负相有关，并且该组的频率将在未来增加。与SOM第1组相关的其他站点的大雪日数减少相比，与SOM第2组相关的大雪日数也会增加，这是由于全球变暖气候中水汽增加和有利天气模式的结果。
This paper showed the frequency of local-scale heavy winter snowfall in Hokkaido, Japan, its historical change, and its response to global warming using self-organizing maps (SOM) of synoptic-scale sea level pressure anomaly. Heavy snowfall days were here defined as days on which the snowfall exceeded 10 mm in water equivalent. It was shown that the SOMs can be grouped into three categories for heavy snowfall days: 1) a passage of extratropical cyclones to the south of Hokkaido, 2) a pressure pattern between the Siberian high and the Aleutian low, and 3) a low pressure anomaly just to the east of Hokkaido. Groups 1 and 2 were associated with heavy snowfall in Hiroo (located in southeastern Hokkaido) and in Iwamizawa (western Hokkaido), respectively, and heavy snowfall in Sapporo (western Hokkaido) was related to group 3. The large-ensemble historical simulation reproduced the observed increasing trend in group 2, and future projections revealed that group 2 was related to a negative phase of the western Pacific pattern and that the frequency of this group would increase in the future. Heavy snowfall days associated with SOM group 2 would also increase as a result of the increase in water vapor and preferable weather patterns in a globally warming climate, in contrast to the decrease of heavy snowfall days at other sites associated with SOM group 1.