INDEXED SEQUENTIAL HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR HYDROPOWER CAPACITY ESTIMATION 1
INDEXED SEQUENTIAL HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR HYDROPOWER CAPACITY ESTIMATION 1
复制标题
水电容量估算的索引序贯水文模型 1
DOI：
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发表时间：
1997
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Fontane
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Ouarda;J. Labadie;D. Fontane
摘要：西部地区电力管理局利用索引顺序水文模型（ISM）方法，作为基于风险的估计几个联邦拥有/运营的项目的项目可靠的水电容量的基础。ISM是一种基于直接从历史记录中获得的一系列重叠短期流入序列的合成生成的技术。ISM的有效性进行评估，通过应用到复杂的多水库水电系统的科罗拉多河流域提供风险估计与确定可靠的水力发电能力。ISM的性能进行了比较，从随机产生的径流输入数据的科罗拉多河模拟系统（CRSS）的结果。结果的统计分析和比较是基于月发电量、发电量和下游供水量。结果表明，ISM合成生成的序列生成的输出显示与随机生成的水文数据为科罗拉多河流域获得一个可接受的对应关系。
ABSTRACT: The indexed sequential hydrologic modeling (ISM) methodology is utilized by the Western Area Power Administration as the basis for risk‐based estimation of project‐dependable hydropower capacity for several federally owned/operated projects. ISM is a technique based on synthetic generation of a series of overlapping short‐term inflow sequences obtained directly from the historical record. The validity of ISM is assessed through application to the complex multireservoir hydropower system of the Colorado River basin for providing risk estimates associated with determination of reliable hydrogeneration capacity. Performance of ISM is compared with results from stochastically generated streamflow input data to the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS). Statistical analysis and comparison of results are based on monthly power capacity, energy generation, and downstream water deliveries. Results indicate that outputs generated from ISM synthetically generated sequences display an acceptable correspondence with those obtained from stochastically generated hydrologic data for the Colorado River Basin.