Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus
Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aab9d7
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发表时间：
2018-04
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
L. Winslow;Taylor H. Leach;K. Rose
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. Winslow;Taylor H. Leach;K. Rose
了解湖泊变暖速率在年代际尺度上的时间变异性对于理解观测到的水生系统变化具有重要意义。我们分析了全球湖泊地表水温度观测数据集（1985 - 2009），以研究湖泊温度如何响应最近的全球气温变暖中断（1998 - 2012）。在此之前（1985 ~ 1998），地表水温度以平均0.532°C（±0.214）的速率显著升高。相反，在间歇期，水温没有显著变化（平均速率- 0.087°C / 10 - 1±0.223）。总体而言，我们数据集中83%的湖泊（155个中的129个）在间歇期前的变暖速度比间歇期快。这些结果表明，湖泊在变暖速率方面表现出与全球气温一致的十年尺度变化，并代表了最近变暖中断的独立证据线。我们的分析提供了证据，表明湖泊是更广泛的气候过程的哨兵，并表明基于在中断期间收集的大部分观测数据集的变暖速率可能低估了长期趋势。
Understanding temporal variability in lake warming rates over decadal scales is important for understanding observed change in aquatic systems. We analyzed a global dataset of lake surface water temperature observations (1985−2009) to examine how lake temperatures responded to a recent global air temperature warming hiatus (1998−2012). Prior to the hiatus (1985−1998), surface water temperatures significantly increased at an average rate of 0.532 °C decade−1 (±0.214). In contrast, water temperatures did not change significantly during the hiatus (average rate −0.087 °C decade−1 ±0.223). Overall, 83% of lakes in our dataset (129 of 155) had faster warming rates during the pre-hiatus period than during the hiatus period. These results demonstrate that lakes have exhibited decadal-scale variability in warming rates coherent with global air temperatures and represent an independent line of evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Our analyses provide evidence that lakes are sentinels of broader climatological processes and indicate that warming rates based on datasets where a large proportion of observations were collected during the hiatus period may underestimate longer-term trends.