Nourishment design and evaluation: applicability of model concepts
Nourishment design and evaluation: applicability of model concepts
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/s0378-3839(02)00123-0
复制
发表时间：
2002-12-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Karambas, T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Capobianco, M;Hanson, H;Karambas, T
在从营养项目转向营养计划的过程中，即当营养成为沿海管理战略的一个组成部分时，模型可以发挥根本作用。在多年管理战略的背景下规划营养需要比过去更重要的预测技能和处理不确定性的意识。本文介绍了模型类和建模情况，并描述了这些因素是这种不确定性的主要来源。讨论了平衡剖面（EP）和闭合深度（DoC）及其时间尺度相关方面；讨论了粒度变化及其对营养海岸动力学的影响；介绍了侵蚀速率的估算及其对海岸系统“基本状态”或“基本趋势”定义的影响；讨论了横向扩展和滩填过渡及其经济意义；校正和验证是与额外的自由度一起引入的，这些自由度可能会添加到模型开发中，并参考决策中的风险问题。这些不确定性的来源与营养和建模的含义有关。主要结论是，虽然形态动力学建模和形态动力学应用于营养设计方面取得了重大进展，但现在需要在确定建模活动的质量控制程序方面取得进展。(C) 2002年Elsevier Science B.V.出版
Models can play a fundamental role while moving from nourishment projects to nourishment plans, i.e., when nourishment becomes an integral component of a coastal management strategy. Planning nourishment in the context of a multi-years management strategy requires more significant prediction skills than available in the past and an awareness of dealing with uncertainty. The present paper introduces model classes and modelling situations and describes those elements that are the main sources of such uncertainty. Equilibrium Profile (EP) and Depth of Closure (DoC) are discussed with their time-scale related aspects; granulometry changes are discussed with their effects on the dynamics of a nourished coast; estimation of erosion rate is introduced with its implications on the definition of the "basic state" or the "basic trend" of the coastal system; lateral spreading and beach fill transition are discussed with their economic implications; and calibration and verification are introduced with the additional degrees of freedom that might be added to model development and with reference to risk issues in decision-making. These sources of uncertainty are examined in relation with implications for nourishment and modelling. The main conclusion is that, while there have been significant advances in modelling morphodynamics and morphodynamics applied to nourishment design, advances in defining procedures for quality control of the modelling activity are now required. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.